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Illinois Football: Top 5 most baffling ESPN Analytics predictions for 2023

By Rees Woodcock

Oct 5, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of an Illinois Fighting Illini helmet before a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 5, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of an Illinois Fighting Illini helmet before a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Illinois head coach Bret Bielema celebrates with a supporter as he heads to the locker room after a game against Wisconsin on Saturday, October 1, 2022, at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison, Wis. Illinois won the game, 34-10, in Bielema’s return to Madison after coaching the Badgers from 2006-2012.Tork Mason/USA TODAY NETWORK-WisconsinUsat Wisconsin Vs Illinois Football 100122 2932 Ttm /

No. 2 Illinois vs Toledo

  • ESPN Analytics Prediction: Illinois 78.1%, Toledo 21.9%

Some people look at the ESPN Analytics and say, why would you put this on the list and why is it No. 2? No, I don’t think Illinois should have a higher percentage. I actually believe it should be a bit lower.

ESPN Analytics has Illinois opening the season against Toledo with a 78.1% chance of beating Toledo. That sounds like a great number, but this isn’t a bad Rockets program.

Toledo finished the 2022 campaign with a 7-5 record and ended up winning the MAC Championship game over Ohio. They parlayed this win into a victory over Liberty in the Boca Raton Bowl.

In my 2023 season prediction article, I have Illinois winning this game 45-10, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be close for most of the contest. Dequan Finn is a good quarterback who threw for 2,260 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions last season. He also ran for 631 yards and nine touchdowns.

Toledo returns most of their team from that nine-win campaign. That scares me a bit. Plus, Toledo actually had more votes to be in the AP Top 25 than Illinois.

I think the Rockets could keep this game close through halftime. It wouldn’t shock me to see this a one-score game heading into the third quarter. Illinois’ defense will come through, and everything will snowball late for an easy Illinois win.

With that said, I think the percentage for Toledo should be higher. They have more than a 21.9% chance to win this game.

  • Changed Prediction: Illinois 69.2%, Toledo 30.8%
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