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Illinois Football: Top 5 most baffling ESPN Analytics predictions for 2023

By Rees Woodcock

Oct 5, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of an Illinois Fighting Illini helmet before a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports
Oct 5, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; A general view of an Illinois Fighting Illini helmet before a game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /
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Oct 8, 2022; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Illinois fighting Illini players celebrate after defeating the Iowa Hawkeyes at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Ron Johnson-USA TODAY Sports /

No. 4 Illinois at #25 Iowa

  • ESPN Analytics Prediction: Illinois 38.2%, Iowa 61.8%

As of right now, Illinois only plays two ranked opponents in 2023. The latter of the two games is against No. 25 Iowa.

The Hawkeyes are going to have a good team this season, but ESPN is laying out that they are projected to be quite a bit better than Illinois. The analytics say that Iowa has a 61.8% chance to beat the Illini.

Last season, we got to see one of the highest-scoring shootouts in college football history, as Illinois would nip Iowa by a score of 9-6. That was with a fully healthy Iowa squad, but I can’t say that for the Illini. Quarterback Tommy DeVito left in the first quarter of that game, and our backup had to keep us afloat. Illinois still managed to win despite having our backup in the game.

Despite winning the matchup last season with a backup quarterback in, ESPN still thinks Illinois is a heavy underdog against Iowa in 2023.

I understand that the Hawkeyes have a new quarterback in transfer, Cade McNamara. He is going to be good for that program. But Illinois is a pretty equal, if not better, team than Iowa.

I am kind of scratching my head at why Illinois is such a big underdog. I understand being an underdog in this game since it is on the road against a solid No. 25 Iowa program, but only getting a 38.2% chance to win is a bit low.

  • Changed Prediction: Illinois 45.8%, Iowa 54.2%
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