Illinois basketball: What stands in the way of the Illini getting to the national title

The time has come. The moment we’ve all been anxiously awaiting. March Madness is finally here and the Illinois basketball team is a part of the chaos.  

After about nearly a decade of disappointment, the Illini heard its name called on Selection Sunday for the third year in a row, drawing the No. 9 seed in the west region of the bracket.

Here is what stands in the way of the Illinois basketball team getting to the national title

Round of 64

Illinois will take on No. 8 Arkansas at 3:30 p.m. CT on Thursday for their first-round matchup. It is winnable, but it won’t be easy.

The Razorbacks racked up some solid wins this season; vs. San Diego St., vs. No. 23 Missouri, vs. No. 17 Texas A&M, at Kentucky, and vs. Auburn.

That said, Arkansas is beatable. They are just 5-11 against NCAA Tournament teams and struggle with grabbing rebounds. The Razorbacks average just over 35 rebounds a game, ranking No. 154 in the country.

This will allow big men Dain Dainja and Coleman Hawkins to feast down low, so expect big games from both of them. If not, things won’t be pretty on Thursday. According to ESPN, Arkansas has a 58% chance to win.

Round of 32

With a first-round win, a date with either No. 1 Kansas or No. 16 Howard awaits. It will be Kansas in all likelihood.

Facing a No. 1 seed is always intimidating – especially a blue blood like the Jayhawks. The Illini would have their hands full trying to contain NBA prospects Gradey Dick and AP first-team All-American, Jalen Wilson.

The Jayhawks do tend to fold against tough opponents, picking up seven losses to fellow tournament teams.

Sweet 16

The Illini’s potential Sweet 16 opponents include No. 4 UConn, No. 5 Saint Mary’s, No. 12 VCU, and No. 13 Iona.

UConn is obviously the favorite here given their seeding. A scoring threat, the Huskies rank within the country’s top 33 by averaging 78.5 points per game.

Saint Mary’s is just as, if not more, capable than the Huskies. The Gaels are one of the nation’s best defensive teams, allowing just over 60 points per game, which ranks No. 5 in the country.

You also can never count out the 12-5 upset, so VCU may be there if the Illini make it to this point.

Elite 8

Entering the list of likely potential opponents for the Elite 8 are No. 2 UCLA, No. 3 Gonzaga, and No. 7 Northwestern.

First on that list is the team the Illini are familiar with. The Illini took down then-No. 8 UCLA 79-70, but that was back in November.  Since then, the Bruins have grown, picking up some impressive wins that include No. 23 Kentucky, vs. USC, and at No. 8 Arizona.

Gonzaga isn’t as talented this year as they’ve been in years past, but they’re a dang good team, especially offensively. The Bulldogs lead the nation with an absurd 87 points per game and have one of the most dominant players in the nation in Drew Timme, a former Illini recruit.

Last is Northwestern, who we split the season series with this year.  I can do all the analysis I want on the Wildcats, but it all boils down to whether or not the Illini can play two halves of basketball against them.

Final Four

The most likely Final Four opponents for the Illini would be No. 1 Houston, No. 2 Texas, or No. 3 Xavier.

We all saw what happened against Houston last year.  One could argue the technical foul called on RJ Melendez after he “hung” on the rim to save himself from a terrible injury ruined all of Illinois’ momentum.

Houston has only gotten stronger since last season and Marcus Sasser has been playing out of his mind lately, scoring at least 20 points in seven of his last nine games. A groin injury might hamper him a bit, though.

Illinois beat then-No. 2 Texas 85-78 back in December, so the Orange and Blue have shown they can beat the Longhorns.

Xavier is another high-powered offensive team, scoring 81.4 points per game, which ranks No. 11 in the country. The Musketeers went an impressive 6-5 against fellow tournament teams.  They also made an impressive run in their conference tournament, including a win vs. Creighton before falling to Marquette in the championship.

National Championship

Of the 32 teams on the other side of the bracket, I think Alabama, Arizona, and Marquette are the three most likely teams to make it out. Again, this is March so absolutely nothing would surprise me.

Alright, it’s time to stop thinking about all of the potential scenarios and focus on Thursday evening’s battle against Arkansas. Let’s try to make it past the first weekend this go-around.