Illinois basketball ends the 2022-23 season with a tough road tilt against the Purdue Boilermakers.
The Illini are coming off one of the craziest games of the season. Thankfully, we were able to pull through in double-overtime against Michigan. This win kept the double-bye dreams alive for the Big Ten Tournament.
Our record this year betting Illinois is 11-9 moneyline, 9-10-1 spread, and 13-9 over/under. We hit the moneyline, pushed on the spread, and lost the over/under in the game against the Wolverines. Let’s see if we can be a little more accurate on Sunday.
Here are the Illinois basketball betting odds, predictions, and game info against the Purdue Boilermakers
Odds
Illinois basketball vs. Purdue – Spread
The Illini have been giving points to teams lately, but on Sunday, the spread is set at +8 in favor of the Orange and Blue.
Advice
One would look at the rankings and location and think Purdue should win this game by more than eight points. Not so fast my friend.
Illinois’ biggest weakness is playing teams that can shoot from behind the three-point arc. We tend to be a little lazy around screens and closing out. This leaves shooters open.
Purdue isn’t the best three-point shooting team, though. The Boilermakers are hitting their shots from deep at a clip of 32.7%, which ranks No. 249 in the nation.
I think everyone is going to keep an eye on who from Illinois is going to guard Zach Edey. Purdue has been deadly from two-point range this season, shooting 54.3%, which ranks No. 34 in the country. A lot of that high percentage has to do with Edey being able to shoot over people.
Illinois has changed up the game plan lately against big men, though. We are bringing another man down and rotating if the ball is kicked back out. Since this has been implemented, the Illini defense has been much better.
I would also like to note that Illinois has been great when defending inside the three-point arc. We are only allowing opponents to shoot 44.6% from two-point range this season, which ranks No. 11 in the nation.
With that being said, I don’t think Purdue puts up a ton of points. That bodes well for Illinois and the +8.
Prediction – Illinois +8
Illinois basketball vs. Purdue – Moneyline
For the first time in a while, Illinois is entering a game as the underdog. If you take the moneyline, you are getting +300 odds for Illinois and -365 odds for Purdue.
Advice
I am honestly surprised Las Vegas thinks Purdue will run over the Illini. I just don’t see it.
Illinois is starting to pick up some steam as a team. We just took down a tough Michigan squad in double overtime. That win gives the program three victories in the last four games.
On the other hand, the Boilermakers haven’t been playing their best basketball. They have dropped four out of the past seven contests, and one of those losses was at home.
I would also like to note, now that Purdue has the Big Ten regular season title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament locked up, they don’t have a ton to play for. One win or loss to Illinois to end the season won’t affect their NCAA tournament seeding too much.
Illinois is playing for a lot, though. With a win, there is a decent chance we can secure the double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament. We also need to improve our NCAA tournament seeding, and knocking off a top-10 team will help tremendously.
This might sound crazy, but I like Illinois here. We should come out of the gates firing with so much on the line.
Prediction – Illinois +300
Illinois basketball vs. Purdue – Over/Under
Illinois’ game against Michigan went way over the 144 points due to double overtime. For this game, Las Vegas set the line at over/under 139 points.
Advice
This over/under is shocking. While Illinois might be a top 100 team in possessions per game, the Boilermakers are a much slower-playing team.
Purdue is only averaging 66 possessions per contest, which ranks No. 339 in the country. They are going to slow this game down and make it ugly.
Even though Illinois does play up-tempo, we are terrible at shooting the basketball. For the season, the Illini shoot 25 three-pointers per game, which ranks No. 37 in the nation, but we only hit them at a clip of 30.9%, which ranks No. 332 out of 363 DI programs.
Lastly, Illinois only allows 66.3 points per game and Purdue allows 62.2 points per game, which ranks No. 59 and No. 16 in the nation, respectively.
I don’t know why the over/under is set so high. I can see the game on Sunday being a really low-scoring affair. I have Illinois winning 58-53.
Prediction – Under 139 points
Illinois basketball vs. Purdue – Game Info
Date & Time: March 5 – 11:30 a.m. CT
TV: FOX
Streaming: Fubo TV