The Illinois basketball program is coming off an ugly win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers on Monday night.
This wasn’t the prettiest of victories, but it was a win for the Illini nonetheless. Illinois is now in solid standing with the latest bracketology predictions, but I would like us to continue moving up with a nice win over Northwestern.
Our record this year betting Illinois is 9-8 moneyline, 8-9 spread, and 11-7 over/under. We had a rough one against Minnesota, going just 1-2. But let’s see if we can turn things around against the Wildcats.
Here are the Illinois basketball betting odds, predictions, and game info against the Northwestern Wildcats.
Odds
Illinois basketball vs. Northwestern – Moneyline
Despite Northwestern beating Illinois by double-digits the first time around, Las Vegas thinks we are the better team. They have Illinois at -230 and Northwestern at +195.
Advice
I believe this game is going to be a close nail-biter at the end. It is a bit surprising that Illinois is that big of a favorite despite the previous result and the fact we might be missing Terrence Shannon Jr. this time around.
Illinois has dropped three out of the past five games, but they were all on the road against solid teams. Shannon is a really good player, but I also believe him being out has given the Illini the chance to gel and play more as a team. We are a man down, so we need to rally. They have a fight-or-flight mentality.
The thing that scares me the most is the fact Northwestern has been so good lately. They have rattled off five-straight wins, which include victories over Purdue and Indiana. This team is no joke.
Illinois is a better team at home than on the road. Team chemistry seems to have improved since the last time these two teams played as well. It makes me a little nervous, but I like Illinois and the moneyline on Thursday night.
Prediction – Illinois -230
Illinois basketball vs. Northwestern – Spread
I was shocked when I saw the first spread for the Illinois game against Northwestern. The Illini are opening up as 5.5-point favorites.
Advice
I mentioned this in the moneyline section, but I think this game is going to be close throughout. I don’t see one team running away from the other on the scoreboard.
Northwestern’s numbers are a bit of a mirage. For the season, they are hitting just 31.8% of their three-pointers, but they can make shots from distance. They were 50% from three-point range against Iowa, 41.4% against Ohio State, and 45% against Minnesota.
In the first game between Illinois and Northwestern, the Wildcats dropped 38.9% from three-point range. Three-point defense has been Illinois’ weakness this season. Over the past eight games, the Illini have allowed opponents to shoot 37.2% from beyond the three-point arc.
Illinois didn’t play well offensively the first around. We shot sub-40% from the field and sub-30% from three-point range. That is a bad combination.
It seems that the Illini have played better in the last couple of games. We are shooting 34.8% from three-point range, which is refreshing to see. I think there is a confidence in this team that has been missing for quite some time as well.
I see Northwestern being able to still knock down some three-pointers against the Illini. I don’t think it will be the bloodbath we saw back in January, though. Illinois should come away with a win, but this will be closer than 5.5 points.
Prediction – Northwestern +5.5 points
Illinois basketball vs. Northwestern – Over/Under
Las Vegas has the over/under for the Illinois vs Northwestern game set at 136 points. That has been about par for the course this season.
Advice
I believe the last time these two teams played, the over/under was 132.5 points, and the game finished at 133 points. I took the under, ouch.
While Las Vegas sees this game as being a little higher scoring, I think it could be an ugly game that goes low.
Northwestern is one of the slowest teams in the country at 67.7 possessions per game, which ranks No. 292 out of 363 DI programs. They are also a good defensive team, giving up just 61.9 points per game, which ranks No. 14 in the nation.
On top of those two key factors, Illinois might be missing some scoring in Shannon Jr. That would probably mean fewer points for the Illini. We aren’t the best shooting team in the world either. Illinois is shooting 45.5% from the field this year, which is just inside the top 100 in the country.
I see this game being another low-scoring contest. I have Illinois winning the game by a score of 65-62.
Prediction – Under 136 points
Illinois basketball vs. Northwestern – Game Info
Date & Time: February 23 – 8:00 p.m. CT
TV: Big Ten Network
Streaming: Fubo TV