The Illinois basketball game this weekend against No. 14 Indiana just got a little bit more important.
After falling to Penn State on the road and dropping two out of the past three games, the Illini have been in must-win mode since late Tuesday night. We need to start rattling off wins to secure a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament and to increase our seeding in the Big Dance.
That was the baseline expectation for the Orange and Blue after the game against the Nittany Lions. But, on Thursday night, the Big Ten got another little shake-up.
No. 3 Purdue went to Maryland and fell to the Terrapins by 14 points. This loss was a bit of a surprise, but it brought back into the play the potential, albeit outside, of winning the Big Ten regular-season title.
First and foremost, the game against Indiana on Saturday is make-or-break for the Illini. If we lose to the Hoosiers, none of what I am about to say matters. We would be back to struggling for the double-bye.
With the schedules the way they are on the way out, beating Indiana would put Illinois in a solid position to compete for the Big Ten regular-season crown.
Here are the steps for the Illinois basketball team to win the Big Ten regular-season title.
Step 1
To win the Big Ten crown outright, I think Illinois is going to need to win the final six games, which is possible. We play three road contests. Beating Indiana is the start, and it ends with Purdue, who is reeling right now. The other road game is against a struggling Ohio State team.
Illinois also has three home games left. We play Minnesota, Northwestern, and Michigan in Champaign. Winning those three games is very possible.
If we want a share of the Big Ten regular season title, we must still beat Indiana, Purdue, and Northwestern. We can have one boneheaded loss to Minnesota, Ohio State, or Michigan. I think we still have a shot at a share if this happens.
Path for the Illinois basketball team to win the Big Ten outright.#Illini #Illinois #Basketball #B1G pic.twitter.com/db2fVsndtV
— Writing Illini (@WritingIlliniFS) February 17, 2023
Step 2
Purdue needs to struggle. I expect them to win at home against Ohio State. But then Indiana needs to beat the Boilermakers in West Lafayette. Purdue then travels to Wisconsin, and the Badgers need to win that game. That would leave the final game being Purdue vs. Illinois. The Illini would obviously need to win that game. Having Purdue finish 1-3 in their final four is realistic looking at the schedule.
Step 3
With my calculations and predictions, I see there is a five-way tie for third place in the Big Ten. I have Northwestern, Iowa, Maryland, Indiana, and Michigan State all finishing at 12-8 in the conference. The wins and losses Illinois needs to win the Big Ten would give all of these teams the same conference record.
Step 4
Wisconsin needs to be a party wrecker. The Badgers have a good team, and they have a chance to cause some chaos here in the final weeks. I have Wisconsin beating Rutgers, Iowa, and Purdue at home. They then drop the game on the road against Michigan but end up beating Minnesota at The Barn. Wisconsin would finish the final five games at 4-1.
I think this is the best path for Illinois to win the Big Ten outright. We need to take this one step at a time, though. This weekend is crucial.