Illinois Basketball: 3 observations from the Illini win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers

3. Double-bye path is clearer

I never thought I would be saying this, but the Illinois basketball team has a legit shot at a double-bye in the Big Ten Tournament.

After the big win on Sunday over Minnesota, the Illini sit at 18-6 overall and 8-5 in the Big Ten. This is good enough for No. 6 in the conference, and we are two games clear of the No. 7 spot.

As it sits right now, Illinois is one game back of the No. 4 and No. 5 spots, which are held by Ohio State and Michigan. We are also only two games back of No. 3 Maryland.

The tough part for the Illini is that we lost to Ohio State and Michigan this season. So, they win the tie-breaker. That means Illinois will need to finish ahead of them by season’s end. I think it can happen, though.

Illinois’ final five games aren’t the toughest in the world. We play Nebraska twice, Penn State, and Rutgers. All three teams are below the Illini in the standings. The only team ahead of us whom we play is Maryland. So, realistically, Illinois can win four out of the final five. I wouldn’t be shocked to see us win our final five games.

Let’s say Illinois wins out. We have four winnable games, and then we would have to upset a top-10 Maryland team. This would put Illinois at 13-5 in the Big Ten. This is pretty much our only path to getting the double-bye.

Maryland would go 3-2 in the final five games with losses to Illinois and Iowa. Ohio State would go 3-2 in the final five games with losses to Indiana and Maryland. Michigan would go 3-2 in the final five games with losses to Indiana and Ohio State.

In this scenario, Maryland and Illinois would finish tied at 13-5 in the Big Ten. The Illini would get the No. 3 seed over the Terrapins because of head-to-head. Ohio State would get the No. 5 seed due to head-to-head against Michigan. The Wolverines would then be the No. 6 seed. Both teams would finish 12-6 in the conference.

If Illinois doesn’t win out, then we are almost certainly playing on Thursday. A Thursday start in the Big Ten Tournament hasn’t happened in a long time. The fact we are even in the discussion for a double-bye this late in the season is impressive.