I didn’t think I would be saying this, but the Illinois basketball team enters Tuesday night in a must-win game against Ohio State.
With 12 games to go, the Illini find themselves No. 10 in the Big Ten but only one game out of second place. We are also comfortably inside the bubble for the NCAA tournament, but dropping a home game to Ohio State would hinder the program moving forward.
Our record this year betting Illinois is 4-5 moneyline, 3-6 spread, and 5-5 over/under. I was way off on the moneyline and spread against Indiana. But, thanks to a few buckets late, the over 144.5 points hit.
Here are the Illinois basketball betting odds, predictions, and game info against Ohio State.
Odds
Illinois basketball vs. Ohio State – Moneyline
Despite the struggles against Indiana, the Illini open the day as favorites against the Buckeyes. Illinois is checking in at -175 while Ohio State is getting +150.
Advice
This game makes me extremely nervous. Illinois had a hard time stopping Indiana, and Ohio State has the same makeup as the Hoosiers.
The Buckeyes get a lot of their points in the paint, and the Illini struggle to stop teams from scoring inside the three-point arc this season.
55.2% of Ohio State’s points come from two-point shots, which ranks No. 63 in the country. 28.6% of their scoring comes from three-pointers and 16.2% comes from free throws. Those two rank No. 248 and No. 281 in the nation, respectively.
Ohio State likes to play inside the three-point arc, and that is Illinois’ worst part about their defense. Illini opponents score 55.5% of their points from two-point range. That ranks No. 318 out of 363 teams in DI basketball.
I realize that Illinois struggled against a similar team in Indiana, but Matthew Mayer is feeling better. He couldn’t play much against the Hoosiers due to being sick. I think this game is going to be extremely close, but Mayer puts Illinois over the top.
Prediction – Illinois -175
Illinois basketball vs. Ohio State – Spread
Illinois was a six-point favorite at home against Indiana, and that didn’t go well. The Illini are playing a similar team in Ohio State and are now four-point favorites against the Buckeyes.
Advice
Everything I mentioned in the moneyline section carries over to the spread. Illinois’ defense struggles to defend anything inside the three-point arc, and that is where Ohio State thrives.
Another thing that scares me is Ohio State’s defense. They are only giving up 66.7 points per game, which ranks No. 91 in the country.
I do think Illinois’ length will give Ohio State problems. That is why I believe the Illini will come away with a victory. But I think this game ends up being pretty close when it is all said and done.
The Buckeyes don’t get blown out. While they are only 1-4 on the road this season, they only average losing those four games by 5.5 points. One of those contests actually went to overtime as well.
Look for this game to be close down the stretch. I think Illinois comes away with the win, but this game is within one score when the final horn blows.
Prediction – Ohio State +4
Illinois basketball vs. Ohio State – Over/Under
The over/under in the Indiana game was 144.5 points, and the game finished at 145 points. Against Ohio State, the Illini over/under is now set at 145 points.
Advice
There is a lot to look at when trying to predict the over/under in this game. First, I looked at the speed of play. Illinois is quicker at 72.7 possessions per game, which ranks No. 71 in the country. Ohio State averages 70.2 possessions per game, which ranks No. 180 in the nation.
While Illinois is a decently fast team, we aren’t great at shooting. We are only hitting our three-pointers at a clip of 33.5%, which ranks No. 195 in the country. So, while we do play fast, we aren’t terribly efficient.
Ohio State likes to play more inside-out basketball. Playing inside the three-point arc is naturally conducive to lower-scoring games. The Buckeyes are one of the best teams in the country when they do shoot three-pointers, but they only attempt 19.2 three-pointers per game, which ranks No. 281 in the nation.
I think the Buckeyes are going to slow this game down a lot. Only one out of their past four games has gone over 145 points. Look for Illinois to win this game, Ohio State to cover the four points, and it to be under 145 points.
Prediction – Under 144.5 points
Illinois basketball vs. Ohio State – Game Info
Date & Time: January 24 – 6:00 p.m. CT
TV: ESPN
Streaming: Fubo TV