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Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction and Odds for Saturday, December 10th (Trust Illini To Stay Hot)

By Reed Wallach

Dec 6, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Matthew Mayer (24) celebrates his three point shot against the Texas Longhorns during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 6, 2022; New York, New York, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini forward Matthew Mayer (24) celebrates his three point shot against the Texas Longhorns during the first half at Madison Square Garden. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports /
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Illinois hosts Penn State in Big Ten action on Saturday on the heels of an impressive come-from-behind win against Texas on a neutral court on Tuesday.

The Illini rallied in the final three minutes to force overtime before knocking off the previously-unbeaten Longhorns and now look to get their first Big Ten win against a much-improved Penn State squad. The Nittany Lions are 6-3 to start the season, coming off a double-overtime loss to Clemson and a home defeat to Michigan State. Will they remain competitive with an elite Illinois squad?

Here are the odds for this Saturday afternoon matchup:

Penn State vs. Illinois Odds, Spread and Total

Penn State vs. Illinois Prediction and Pick

Penn State has been shooting at an unsustainable rate all season long, and it’s already catching up to it, shooting 29% from beyond the arc in the loss to Michigan State earlier this week.

The team is still shooting at an absurd rate from beyond the arc, the fifth-highest three-point rate in the country matched by the 22nd-highest three-point percentage at over 39%. The team is elite at protecting the rock, 10th in turnover rate, but doesn’t generate any second chances or free throws, bottom 20 in both offensive rebound and free throw rate.

ShotQuality rates Penn State’s offense 108th in their adjusted offensive metric and they will run into trouble against Illinois, who is far more efficient and reliant on a healthy shot profile, 54th in ShotQuality’s adjusted offensive efficiency metric as well as shooting 57% on two-point tries.

Illinois is the class of the Big Ten this season and head home to get its first Big Ten win. I believe that regression is coming for the Nittany Lions and I’ll lay it with the Illini.

PICK: Illinois -8.5

Track all of Reed’s bets at Betstamp HERE!

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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