Illinois Football: Best-case scenario for the Illini to finish out 2022

Illinois football fans are now two days removed from dropping a game to Michigan State, and the hurt hasn’t worn off yet.

I continue to think about the opportunity this Illini team had if we could have just kept winning. I have been processing these feelings of disappointment, and there might be a silver lining to these terrible emotions.

If you think about it, being disappointed about losing to Michigan State, in a way, is a good thing. That disappointment nine games into a season means we have something to play for. In the past, disappointment for the Illinois football program had worn off by the ninth game of the year. Most fans were already geared up for the start of the basketball season.

Feeling this type of disappointment nine games in means there is something going right with the Illinois football team. And, by the way, there is still a ton to play for this season.

On Sunday, the AP Top 25 released their updated rankings. A loss to Michigan State was obviously going to drop the Illini, but I am pleasantly surprised that we are still ranked No. 21 in the country. It was an understandable seven-spot drop.

What is the best-case scenario for the Illinois football team for the rest of the 2022 season?

Now that we know where Illinois stands through nine games – still ranked inside the top 25 – we have a better picture of the heights the Illini can get to if we can win some games down the stretch.

Illinois has Purdue at home this weekend. If we can win that game, we probably move up a couple of spots. The Boilermakers suffered a rough loss against Iowa this past weekend, and they don’t have a single vote to be in the AP Top 25.

So, let’s say we get up to No. 19 in the rankings.  No. 3 Michigan is next on the schedule. A win here would be huge for the rankings, the national image of Illinois, and the Bret Bielema era. I think a victory skyrockets the Illini high in the rankings. I would imagine, with just two losses and a win over a top-five team, Illinois jumps to No. 14 in the AP Top 25.

The final game of the regular season then finishes with Northwestern. This should be a win, but I don’t think it moves us up in the rankings too much. So, let’s say Illinois wins and we move to No. 13 in the nation. I think that is the peak of where we can get in the AP Top 25 in the regular season.

In the middle of all this winning, Illinois would secure a berth in the Big Ten Championship game. This would pair the Illini up with No. 2 Ohio State.

At this point, Ohio State is projected to be a College Football Playoff team. They would have just beaten Michigan to get to the Big Ten Championship game. If Illinois takes out the Buckeyes, it would be monumental. It would be the first time we have won the conference since 2001.

A win over Ohio State would also give the Illini two top-five victories and a record of 11-2 this season. I would venture to say that Illinois jumps a lot of teams with this win. I think the highest we would probably get is No. 7 in the nation.

While we wouldn’t make the College Football Playoff, this would put us in the Rose Bowl against either Oregon, USC, or UCLA. I think, with our defense, we can go into Pasadena and beat any of those teams.

When it is all said and done, the pinnacle for the Illinois football team this season is, most likely, finishing No. 7 in the country. We could finish the regular season 10-2, win a Big Ten Championship, and win the Rose Bowl. That would be an incredible run and just the start of something special in Champaign.