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Illinois Football: 5 observations from the Illini loss to Michigan State

By Rees Woodcock

CHAMPAIGN, IL - NOVEMBER 05: Tommy DeVito #3 of the Illinois Fighting Illini catches the hiked ball during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images)
CHAMPAIGN, IL - NOVEMBER 05: Tommy DeVito #3 of the Illinois Fighting Illini catches the hiked ball during the first half against the Michigan State Spartans at Memorial Stadium on November 5, 2022 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Michael Hickey/Getty Images) /
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CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 15: Tommy DeVito #3 of the Illinois Fighting Illini hands the ball off to Chase Brown #2 during the first half in the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium on October 15, 2022 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS – OCTOBER 15: Tommy DeVito #3 of the Illinois Fighting Illini hands the ball off to Chase Brown #2 during the first half in the game against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Memorial Stadium on October 15, 2022 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /

2. Illinois was too predictive on 3rd down

The Illini are up there in some big-time statistical categories. We have an elite defense, and the ability of Chase Brown at running back is something special. But one thing we are not good at is converting on third downs.

Coming into the Michigan State game, the Illini were converting just 37.96% of third downs on the season. That is bad enough to rank No. 70 in the country. On Saturday, Illinois kept in line with that third-down efficiency by converting just 35.3% of their third downs against the Spartans.

Why is Illinois so bad at converting on third downs? I think it is the fact we are too predictable when it comes to third-down plays.

When it comes to third-down plays where there are fewer than three yards to go, Illinois tends to run the football. Against Michigan State, the Illini had five third down plays with three or fewer yards to go. We ran the ball on four of those downs. With three or fewer yards to go on third down, Illinois was 1-of-4 against the Spartans running the football. We were 1-of-1 when we would throw the ball.

For the entire game, Illinois was 6-of-17 on third downs against Michigan State. If you break that down, the Illini were 1-of-6 converting on third downs running the ball and 5-of-11 passing the ball. That is a 16.6% conversion rate running and a 45.5% conversion rate passing the football.

There are times I like the play calls from the Illinois sidelines, but I think it is fair to say that we need to change it up a little bit. We can’t keep handing the ball off up the middle on third and short. That just isn’t working.

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