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Illinois Basketball: Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the Illini

By Rees Woodcock

CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 09: Head coach Brad Underwood of the Illinois Fighting Illini watches his team from the sidelines in the game against the Jackson State Tigers at State Farm Center on November 09, 2021 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images)
CHAMPAIGN, ILLINOIS - NOVEMBER 09: Head coach Brad Underwood of the Illinois Fighting Illini watches his team from the sidelines in the game against the Jackson State Tigers at State Farm Center on November 09, 2021 in Champaign, Illinois. (Photo by Justin Casterline/Getty Images) /
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With a win by Wisconsin on Tuesday night, the Illinois basketball team’s chances of taking home a share of the Big Ten regular season title are very small.

There is a slim hope, though. If the Illini win out and the Badgers drop their game to Nebraska, then Illinois and Wisconsin will share the 2021-22 Big Ten regular season title. That would put both Wisconsin and Illinois at 15-5 in the Big Ten, and without a tiebreaker for the regular season, it would end up being a tie.

Just a couple of days ago, I would have thought Nebraska had zero chance of beating the Badgers, but they did take down Ohio State on Tuesday night, so there is some fight in the Cornhuskers. In addition to Nebraska having some fight, Wisconsin also celebrated Tuesday night as they guaranteed themselves a share of the Big Ten regular season title. Hopefully, when they play Nebraska, it won’t be with so much ferocity.

So, there is still hope for Illinois to come away with a share of the Big Ten regular season. But it is also time to start focusing on where the Orange and Blue could be seeded for the Big Ten Tournament here in a week.

Here are the Big Ten Tournament seeding scenarios for the Illinois basketball team.

Illinois basketball #2 seed

This is the scenario where Illinois is the most in control of their destiny. If we can just win the final two games, we end up with the No. 2 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.

Penn State is the next game up, and they are very beatable. If we can get past them, then Iowa is the final game of the season. This game would be a big one in determining what seed Illinois ends up with in the Big Ten Tournament.

How does Illinois become a No. 2 seed?

Win – Penn State

Win – Iowa

Final standings

  1. Wisconsin 16-4
  2. Illinois 15-5
  3. Purdue 14-6
  4. Iowa 12-8
  5. Ohio State 12-8

Illinois basketball #3 seed

If Illinois goes 1-1 in the final two games, they are still guaranteed at worst a No. 3 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. We are clear by two games of fourth place, so going 1-1 would still lock up a top-three seed.

Even if the Illini lose one of the final two games, Purdue would still have to beat Indiana to jump the Orange and Blue. This would put Illinois in a tie with the Boilermakers, and Purdue would take the tiebreaker because of the head-to-head result.

How does Illinois become a No. 3 seed?

Win – Penn State

Lose – Iowa

Purdue – Win vs Indiana

Final standings

  1. Wisconsin 16-4
  2. Purdue 14-6
  3. Illinois 14-6
  4. Iowa 13-7
  5. Ohio State 12-8

Illinois basketball #4 seed

The worst-case scenarios are if Illinois ends up as the No. 4 or No. 5 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. Both are still a possibility. The No. 4 seed scenario has Illinois dropping both of their final games. Some dominoes would still need to fall for the Illini to drop down, though.

Purdue would need to beat Indiana, which would drop Illinois to a No. 3 seed. Ohio State then beats both Michigan and Michigan State. The Buckeyes would jump the Illini based on head-to-head. Iowa would then need to lose to Michigan this week, which would still put the Hawkeyes behind Illinois.

How does Illinois become a No. 4 seed?

Lose – Penn State

Lose – Iowa

Purdue – Win vs Indiana

Ohio State – Win vs Michigan, Win vs Michigan State

Iowa – Lose vs Michigan

Final standings

  1. Wisconsin 16-4
  2. Purdue 14-6
  3. Ohio State 13-7
  4. Illinois 13-7
  5. Iowa 12-8

Illinois basketball #5 seed

This is the rock bottom scenario. I believe this could technically happen, but it would mean everything goes wrong for the Illini. The first part would be Illinois losing both of their final two games.

Purdue would then beat Indiana to jump Illinois. Ohio State would then need to win against both Michigan and Michigan State. That would put them in a tie with Illinois. Iowa would then beat Illinois and then beat Michigan to also put them in a tie with the Illini. The three-way tie would then be broken by the combined records against each other. So, Illinois would be 1-2 against Iowa and Ohio State, Ohio State would be 1-1 against Iowa and Illinois, and Iowa would be 2-1 against Illinois and Ohio State. This would leave Illinois as the No. 5 seed.

How does Illinois become a No. 5 seed?

Lose – Penn State

Lose – Iowa

Purdue – Win vs Indiana

Ohio State – Win vs Michigan, Win vs Michigan State

Iowa – Win vs Michigan

Final standings

  1. Wisconsin 16-4
  2. Purdue 14-6
  3. Iowa 13-7
  4. Ohio State 13-7
  5. Illinois 13-7

These are some of the various scenarios for the Illini the rest of the way out. Hopefully, we win the final two games so we don’t have to rely on other teams to lose at the end of the season.

dark. Next. 5 observations from the Illini win against Michigan

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