Illinois Basketball: Scenarios for the Illini to win the Big Ten regular season

Just days ago, I thought it would be difficult for the Illinois basketball team to even win a share of the Big Ten regular season title.

At the time, the Illini had dropped a game to Ohio State, which was a game we needed to win. This loss meant that chips had to start falling for the Orange and Blue if we wanted a shot to get to the top of the Big Ten.

Well, on Saturday, some of those chips started to fall. In a bit of a surprise, the Purdue Boilermakers fell to a struggling Michigan State crew. Heading into that game, the Spartans had dropped three in a row and five out of the past six games. They were reeling.

But the Big Ten stayed true to form, and Michigan State was able to take down a top-five Purdue squad. This really shook up the Big Ten standings. Purdue, Illinois, and Ohio State are all tied in the loss column with five losses. Wisconsin is at the top of the conference standings with just four losses.

How can Illinois basketball get a piece of the Big Ten regular season title?

Step 1 – Win out

Well, first off, we have to win out. The Illini need to win their final three games to have a legit shot at the title. It starts with a road tilt against Michigan on Sunday. Illinois then welcomes in Penn State and Iowa to finish off the 2021-22 season.

Winning out would put Illinois at 15-5 in the Big Ten.

Step 2 – Wisconsin loss

If Wisconsin wins out, they are going to win the Big Ten, so that can’t happen. One of the final two games for the Badgers is against Nebraska. That is an easy win.

But, thankfully, Wisconsin’s other game is against Purdue on Tuesday. That is a game they must lose for Illinois to have a shot at getting to the top of the Big Ten. If the Badgers lose that game, Illinois has a really good chance at sharing the title.

Wisconsin losing to Purdue would put them at 15-5 in the Big Ten.

If these two things happen, then Illinois will share the Big Ten regular season title. But is there a scenario where the Illini can take the title outright?

Outright winning scenario

It is an extreme long shot, but there is a chance Illinois can come out of the regular season as the top team in the Big Ten and not have to share the honor.

Obviously, they have to win out. Wisconsin would then have to not only lose to Purdue, but they would need to drop a game against the worst team in the conference in Nebraska. That is highly unlikely, but it could happen.

After Purdue beats the Badgers, they would then need to lose their final game to Indiana. That is way more likely than Wisconsin losing to Nebraska, but it is still tough.

The final thing that needs to happen is for Ohio State to drop one of their final four games. I would peg them to lose to either Maryland, Nebraska, Michigan State, or Michigan.

If this scenario plays out, the Big Ten standings would look like this.

1. Illinois 15-5
2. Purdue – 14-6
3. Wisconsin – 14-6
4. Ohio State – 14-6

This is highly unlikely, but it is not impossible. A share of the Big Ten regular season is something that could very easily happen, though. Let’s just focus on winning and let the chips fall into place.