Illinois vs Wisconsin Prediction and Promo: Bet $10, Win $200 at WynnBET Sportsbook
By Joe Summers
The 15-5 #18 Illinois Fighting Illini look to extend their winning streak to three games when they host the 17-3 #11 Wisconsin Badgers tonight at 8:00 PM CST. WynnBET has the Illini as 7-point favorites and -290 on the moneyline (bet $29 to win $10) while the over-under is 139.5.
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This is how we’re betting this game
Illinois vs Wisconsin Prediction
Despite their two-game winning streak, the Illini have struggled a bit of late. They’ve gone just 1-5 against the spread (ATS) in their last six matchups and haven’t been shooting the ball well. Despite that, Illinois still has one of the most balanced teams in college basketball and boast the 17th-best offense in adjusted efficiency and 26th-best defense, per Bart Torvik.
A matchup against Wisconsin just may be what they need to get on track. The Badgers are ranked 40th in adjusted defensive efficiency but rank just 137th nationally in defensive 2-point percentage and 205th in defensive 3-point percentage. Illinois will have room to shoot as they hope to send the Badgers home with their fourth straight ATS loss.
Wisconsin, for their part, has been shooting the lights out lately. Star Johnny Davis is shooting 36% from beyond the arc on the season and his counterpart Brad Davison is even better at 39%, including 15/27 in the last three games.
With the 2nd-lowest offensive turnover rate in the country, the Badgers do a great job of protecting the ball and getting through their entire offensive set to find the best shot. This makes them difficult to put away as they’ve covered the spread and won outright in three of their four games as underdogs this season.
Illinois has had trouble with turnovers all year and rank 212th in offensive turnover rate. Between the advantage Wisconsin has there, the ability the Badgers have to catch fire from deep and the slow pace both teams play at (both rank outside the top 200 in adjusted tempo), I think seven points is too large of a spread here.
I’ll take the Badgers +7 (-110) in a game I think they can win. If Illinois plays it’s best game, they’ll cover, but Wisconsin makes it difficult to do that. On top of going 3-1 outright as underdogs, they’re also 6-2 ATS on the road this year. They’re just built for these situations. Give me the visitors to push the Fighting Illini to 1-6 ATS in their last seven.
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