3. 1.00 or better ATR
I think it is fair to say that Illinois is a sloppy team with the ball. They give up 13.3 turnovers per game, and this is good enough for No. 184 in the nation.
While this looks bad on paper, the Illini counterbalances their sloppy play with tremendous ball distribution. The ability to pass the ball and get teammates involved has been a specialty for the Illini. They currently have an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.257, meaning that for every turnover they have, they also have 1.257 assists. This number is good enough to be ranked No. 42 in the nation.
In the first game against Wisconsin, the turnover margin was way out of balance. Illinois had 18 turnovers compared to only 11 turnovers for the Badgers. While that -7 turnover margin looks terrible, Illinois actually ended up with a better ATR, which is what I look at more than the turnover margin.
Wisconsin only had six assists in the game against Illinois in early February. So, with six assists and 11 turnovers, the Badgers had an ATR of 0.54. If you look at the national average for ATR, Wisconsin’s 0.54 ATR would rank dead last nationally. That is how bad they were the first time around.
Illinois, while having seven more turnovers than Wisconsin, also had 16 assists in the game earlier this month. That comes out to a 0.88 ATR, which isn’t great but is still much better than Wisconsin. This would rank right around No. 228 in the nation.
A focus for Illinois on Saturday should be to keep their ATR at 1.00 or better. I want more assists than we have turnovers. That is something we can achieve. I would also like to see the Illinois defense hold Wisconsin to below 1.00 ATR. If both of these things happen, there is no doubt we win the game.