Illinois Basketball: Best, worst and most likely scenarios for the Illini

Most likely scenario

Now that you have gone through the ceiling and the floor for the Illini to finish out the season, it is time for the most likely scenario.

Illinois takes on Michigan State on Tuesday night. The Illini have too much depth and talent for the Spartans to handle. They don’t have anyone who can match up with Kofi Cockburn. This means the Illini big man should have a big game. I see Illinois pulling away in the second half and winning by double-digits.

The next game is against Nebraska. The first game against the Cornhuskers was tough, but I believe Illinois was sleepwalking through that contest. They won’t be asleep for this one, though. Nebraska comes to Champaign and warms up the buses early in this game. Illinois should win easily.

No. 23 Wisconsin should be a tough matchup, but Illinois did win by 15 points earlier this season. The Badgers can beat okay teams, but they struggle against the top echelon of college basketball. I see the tremendous guard play of the Illini being too much and Illinois winning this game late.

Illinois’s size is something Michigan hasn’t dealt with this season. Wolverines’ big man Hunter Dickinson will be outmatched by the size of Kofi. I see Kofi dominating this game with some big numbers. Meanwhile, Illinois’ guards take over from the perimeter and give the Wolverines some issues. A big win here for the Illini vaults them up into the top three nationally.

The final game of the season is on the road against Ohio State. The Buckeyes were dominating the Illini in the first game this season, but Illinois managed to claw their way back. Ohio State shot lights out in that game, but only won by six points. I see the second matchup coming down to the wire, but the Buckeyes sneak another one out, sweeping the season series.

This is a pretty realistic scenario where Illinois finishes their season 4-1 in the final five games. That would put the Illini at 20-6 overall and 16-4 in Big Ten play. This scenario puts both Michigan and Ohio State in the mix.

Michigan plays No. 9 Iowa on Thursday. The Hawkeyes have a dominating big man in Luka Garza. Dickinson hasn’t faced a big man like Garza either. This could give the Wolverines some trouble. Based on the matchup, I have Michigan falling to Iowa.

The Wolverines then take down Indiana on the road because the Hoosiers don’t have the firepower to go up against that tough of a team. Illinois is next on the Michigan schedule. This is a loss based on the breakdown of the Illinois schedule. The final two games for Michigan are against Michigan State, both of which should be wins.

This would give Michigan a 19-3 record overall and a 14-3 Big Ten record. Illinois would have two more wins and one more loss than Michigan, so that means the Illini would finish a half-game ahead of the Wolverines. But what about Ohio State?

The Buckeyes only have three more games on the schedule. They should beat Michigan State on Thursday. Iowa had the lead with less than 10 minutes to go in the first matchup, only to let the game slip away. Garza probably had his worst game of the season with 16 points and 7 rebounds. I don’t expect him to be this average this time around. Iowa finishes their season strong and takes down Ohio State.

Illinois matches up with the Buckeyes for the final game of the season. I had this chalked up as a loss for the Illini, so this is a win for Ohio State.

So, with the Buckeyes finishing the season 2-1, they would then move to 20-6 overall and 14-6 in the Big Ten. Illinois would finish with two more Big Ten wins and two fewer losses, giving the Illini the two-game lead over Ohio State.

In the most likely scenario, I have Illinois emerging as the Big Ten regular season champion. This is pretty realistic in my eyes. We are all Iowa fans when they play Michigan, and Illinois just needs to take care of business. That is how we can emerge as the best team in the conference.