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Illinois Basketball: 4 keys for the Illini to beat Michigan State

By Rees Woodcock

Feb 2, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn (21) attempts to block a shot by Indiana Hoosiers forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports
Feb 2, 2021; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini center Kofi Cockburn (21) attempts to block a shot by Indiana Hoosiers forward Trayce Jackson-Davis (23) during the second half at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. Mandatory Credit: Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports /
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Illinois basketball
Jan 10, 2021; Champaign, Illinois, USA; Maryland Terrapins guard Jade Brahmbhatt (22) and Illinois Fighting Illini guard Ayo Dosunmu (11) battle for the ball on the floor during the second half at the State Farm Center. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports /

3. Win the ATR

Illinois is better than Michigan State in many different metrics. You can look at scoring, which I did in the previous slide, and see that the Illini can outscore the Spartans on Tuesday night.

But there are a couple of metrics where these two programs share similar numbers. Let’s first start with turnovers. Illinois is coughing up the ball at a rate of 13.4 turnover per game, which ranks No. 180 in the nation. Michigan State is a little worse at 13.7 turnovers per game, which ranks No. 215 in the nation.

Michigan State also distributes the ball pretty well. They check in with 16.9 assists per contest, which ranks No. 14 in the nation. Illinois is, again, leading the Spartans at 17.1 assists per contest, which ranks No. 11 in the nation.

With so many assists by both programs, each team is pretty impressive in the assist-to-turnover ratio statistic. Illinois has an ATR of 1.278, which ranks No. 36 in the nation while Michigan State’s ATR is 1.234, which is No. 52 in the nation.

One way to win the game is to win the ATR. Illinois’ focus here should be to have Ayo Dosunmu getting his teammates involved in the game. His 10 assists against Minnesota bumped his season average to 5.3 assists per game. I am looking for Ayo to be a ball distributor early on so his teammates can get going.

The other way to win the ATR in this game is to play defense the same way Illinois has been playing defense. It isn’t like Michigan State has an ace point guard. They have a group of players who can all distribute the ball well. This is a team effort by the Spartans. Some solid lockdown defense by Trent Frazier, Da’Monte Williams and Adam Miller should thwart the Michigan State offensive attack.

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