Illinois Football: Red zone defense proved clutch for Illini in 2019

I think we can all agree the Illinois football defense showed some massive improvements from 2018 to 2019.

It was a great year for the Illini as we went back to a bowl game for the first time in the Lovie Smith era. This six-win campaign was on the backs of a solid offense and a defense that did some special things.

Illinois’ defense went from giving up 41.7 points per game during the 2018 campaign to just 26.2 points per game in 2019. That is a great improvement and a trend we hope to see continue in 2020. But there is a sentiment out there that Illinois can’t keep up with the turnovers they produced during the 2019 season. So, let’s take a look at the numbers.

Yes, the Illini defense continues to develop on the turnover front. They have learned techniques like the “Peanut Punch” that enables the offensive player to lose the ball more frequently. But there wasn’t a drastic difference in turnovers per game from 2018 to 2019.

In 2018, Illinois averaged taking the ball away 1.5 times per game. They improved that number to 2.2 takeaways per game last season. That is a 0.7 takeaway increase, which is pretty solid all things considered. But this isn’t a huge difference. That is only eight more takeaways in a 12-game season. Granted, they are extremely important takeaways, but it is a number that can be duplicated in 2020.

There are a couple of numbers I did want to take a look at that I believe makes a big difference in the Illinois defensive improvement year over year. Let’s look at the red zone numbers.

Illinois was not a good red zone team in 2018. The opposing team would average 4.4 red zone attempts per game, which ranks No. 105 in the nation for the Illini. That number actually didn’t change much in 2019 as the Illini opponents averaged four red zone attempts per game. It is not the red zone attempts by opponents I want to look at but rather the conversion rate of those attempts.

In 2018, Illinois’ opponents scored on 87.5-percent of their red zone attempts. That number dropped down to 82.69-percent in 2019. That doesn’t sound like a lot, but when you break it down, it comes out to a decent number of points.

So, if you break those percentages down from a 12-game season perspective, Illinois’ opponents scored on 46.2 out of 52.8 of their red zone attempts in 2018. In 2019, the Illini opponents scored on 39 out of the 48 red zone attempts. What does this mean, though?

Illinois’ opponents scored 7.2 (46.2-39) fewer times in the red zone in 2019 than in 2018. If those scores are touchdowns, that means Illinois’ defense potentially saved the team 50.4 points over the 12-game regular season, which comes out to roughly 4.2 points per game.

The red zone defense for the Illini alone saves the team, potentially, 4.2 points per game. That is a huge number considering Illinois won the Wisconsin game by one point and the Michigan State game by three points. Just imagine what the team will be able to do moving forward. If we continue to see these improvements, expect more wins on the board for the Orange and Blue.