Illinois Basketball: Worst-case for the Illini in the Big Ten regular season

The Illinois basketball team has two huge games coming up that will decide the future for the program in the Big Ten Tournament.

There is still a real chance the Illini take home the regular-season Big Ten title and enter the conference tournament as the No. 1 seed. That is something I believe has a legit shot at happening. More dominoes need to fall, but it would not shock me to see the Orange and Blue at the top by seasons end.

But let’s play devil’s advocate and look at the worst-case scenario for Illinois. If they drop their final two games this season, what is the lowest they can fall in the Big Ten standings?

Dropping the final two games means we would lose to Iowa and Ohio State, both of which are behind us in the standings. This would put us at 12-8 in the Big Ten. We are the final game for the Hawkeyes, so if they beat us that would put them at 12-8 in the conference with two wins over the Illini. That means they would jump ahead in the Big Ten standings.

Wisconsin would be able to jump ahead of the Illini if they would split their final two games. I see them winning at home against Northwestern, which would put the Badgers at 13-7 in the conference if they would drop their final game on Saturday.

The final team that could jump the Orange and Blue would be Ohio State. This is more of a stretch, but it could happen. The Buckeyes and Illini play each other, so that would be one win for Ohio State. They would then have to beat Michigan State on Sunday to hop Illinois. That is a possibility, so I will add it here.

With these three teams being able to jump Illinois in the conference standings, that means our floor right now is a No. 6 seed paying on Thursday. That is the absolute floor if everything goes wrong for the Illini over the next five days.

It is comforting to think that the lowest we can drop is No. 6 in the Big Ten. I don’t think it will happen, but the floor for this program used to be last in the conference. On a final note, I wanted to point out that if we win on Thursday against Ohio State, that would lock up a double-bye for the Illini. These are some high-stakes games.

Edit: I forgot the round-robin scenario. This would have Illinois tied with Ohio State and Penn State at 12-8. Based on the round-robin scenario of the Big Ten tie-breaker rules, Illinois would then drop to No. 7 in the Big Ten Tournament.