Illinois Basketball: Numbers show where the Illini hit lulls

The Illinois basketball team doesn’t have the worst record in the world right now.

We are currently sitting at 6-2 for the season with losses to a No. 12 Arizona and Miami (FL). Could things be worse? Sure, I have seen worse times just recently during this coaching regime and the previous one too.

The current record isn’t what is making me nervous right now. Illinois sits a 6-2, but their next two games are against No. 3 Maryland and No. 4 Michigan. That is what makes me nervous. If we can win one of those two games, everything is peaches and cream. But if we drop both of those games, we move to 6-4 with no signature wins on the resume despite three chances at beating a top 15 team.

I am not in panic mode yet. I still believe in what is going on in Champaign with the basketball team. But there is a clear struggle at times on the court. We have a hard time putting two halves of basketball together against solid DI opponents. I dove into the numbers a little bit to see if there are certain times in each game where the Orange and Blue struggle more than others.

By the numbers

My goal of this small study is to determine if there are certain times in games where Illinois hits a lull and if these lulls form a trend over a certain period of time.

I broke down each half of basketball into quarters. So, the first half has four quarters. Quarter one is minutes 20-15, quarter two is between the 14:59-10 minute mark, quarter three is between 9:59-5 and quarter four is between 4:59 and halftime. Likewise, I did this for the second half as well.

In this short study, I only compiled numbers from the Nicholls State, Grand Canyon, Arizona, Hawaii and Miami games. I left out The Citadel, Hampton and Lindenwood games because Illinois is obviously a far superior team than those three programs. The numbers from those three games would have skewed the results.

So, for each of the quarters, I took the plus-minus for the Illini. For example, Illinois starts the game against Grand Canyon and by the 15-minute mark, they are up five points. That means they are +5 during that time. From 14:59-10 minutes in the first half, Illinois outscored Grand Canyon by three points, so they were +3 for that quarter.

After compiling the numbers, I have deducted that there is a trend with the lulls in games for Illinois. The biggest lull that I found was between the 14:59-10 minute mark in the first half. In the five-game study, Illinois averages a -3.6 plus-minus during this period of time. In the Arizona and Miami games, this period of time was the lowest plus-minus. In the Nicholls State and Hawaii games, it was the third-lowest plus-minus, and in the Grand Canyon game, it was the fifth-lowest.

The second biggest lull for the Illini came between the 14:59-10 minute mark in the second half. Illinois’ plus-minus for this period of time was -1.6. Against Nicholls State, Grand Canyon and Arizona, the Illini were outscored in this time period.

Here are the plus-minus numbers for each quarter; 20-15 minutes first half (+1.4), 14:59-10 (-3.6), 9:59-5 (-0.2), 4:59-halftime (+1.4), 20-15 minutes second half (+3.6), 14:59-10 (-1.6), 9:59-5 (+0.4) and 4:59- end of game (-1).

Analysis

So, there is a clear lull between the 14:59-10 minute mark of each half. What is causing this lull and what can we do to fix it moving forward?

My theory on why Illinois struggles during this time period is that they lose focus. I believe the energy level is the lowest at this point in each half. Let me explain.

When the game starts, Illinois has tons of energy. You can see it in every game. An example of this is against Miami. The Illini win the tip and Ayo Dosunmu pushes the ball quickly up the court. Kofi Cockburn is moving toward the basket. Ayo proceeds to launch the pass over Kofi’s head and out of bounds. His adrenaline was at a high at that point.

Toward the beginning of games, Illinois is excited and pumped up. But once the game settles in, their adrenaline calms down and this is when the Illini let things go. The opposing team either takes the lead or at least keeps the game close during this time. The final five minutes of each half, give or take a few minutes, is when Illinois’ energy goes back up because they realize that the game is close or they are down by a lot. So, their adrenaline spikes during these times.

Let’s look at the game this way. So, if you take each of the five games in this study and take out the chunk of time between the 14:59-10 minute mark of each half, Illinois has outscored their opponents by 28 points. If you only look at the 14:59-10 minute mark of each half and eliminate the rest of the time, Illinois is being outscored by 26 points this season.

Conclusion

Illinois needs to find a way to energize the team between the 14:59-10 minute mark of each half. That is when we tend to either lose games or make them closer than they should be. If we can find a way to light a fire under this team during these times, then I think we can shock the world this season.