The full slate of Big Ten games is about to start up for the Illinois basketball team and we are already behind the eight ball.
After a home loss to Florida Atlantic, things look pretty bleak for the Illini to make the NCAA tournament. We have to essentially win out to go dancing. That outlook is unrealistic, so let’s look at the rest of the season in six-game chunks. We have 18 games remaining, so there are three six-game chunks left of the season.
The first six-game span is rough for Illinois. Four of the six games are against ranked opponents. I don’t see this Illini team beating No. 23 Indiana and No. 24 Iowa on the road. No. 2 Michigan and No.15 Wisconsin come to Champaign and I don’t see the Illini winning those games either. The other two games are at Northwestern and Minnesota at home. Both are solid teams, so I see the Illini dropping the game up in Evanston and beating the Gophers in Champaign. That would bring the Illinois record to 5-14.
Illinois’ second six-game span is slightly easier than their first one. They only have two road games, one is against No. 13 Ohio State and the other is against Minnesota. I see the Illini, most likely, dropping both of those contests. The bad thing for the Illini is the fact that most of the Big Ten is really good. The four home games in this six-game chunk are difficult. Illinois takes on Maryland, Nebraska, No. 8 Michigan State and Rutgers. The only game I see Illinois winning here is against Rutgers. Maryland, Nebraska and Michigan State all have double-digit victories already. That would give the Illini a 6-19 overall record.
The final six-game chunk is still pretty difficult, but there could be a few wins in there for the Illini. They start with No. 15 Wisconsin on the road. That is probably a loss. They then have Penn State at home, Purdue on the road and Northwestern at home. I could see all three of these being wins. No. 23 Indiana comes to Champaign and then Illinois heads to Penn State. Both of those are tough and will probably be losses. That means the Illini would finish the season with a 9-22 record.
To begin the season, this was a record that I didn’t think was possible. I believe this is a realistic outlook for this program right now. Let’s try to continue developing the young guys and get prepared for next year.