Illinois Basketball: Figuring out the most productive rotation for the Illini

This season has been a struggle for the Illinois basketball team and, if you look at the schedule, the slide may not stop anytime soon.

Illinois now sits at 4-8 overall, which is one of the worst starts in school history. While we have won two out of the last three games, the one loss ended up being a blowout to Missouri in the annual Braggin’ Rights game.

The Illini do have Florida Atlantic coming up this Saturday and that should be a win. But, after the game against the Owls, the Big Ten slate starts back up. Four out of the first six Big Ten matchups for the Illini are against ranked opponents. That is a tough stretch. How can Illinois use the talent they have on the team right now to start winning some more games, though?

I think the simple answer is for Brad Underwood to play the most productive players. There are seven Illinois basketball players getting at least 21.9 minutes per game. But, are these the most productive options for the Illini right now?

I took a simplified approach to figure out who has statistically been the most productive basketball player on the court for the Illini this year. I took points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks and added them up. I then subtracted the number of turnovers for the player. This comes out with a number that is the net good for the season so far. I then divided the net good by the total number of minutes played, and this produced how many good things each player does per minute.

There are some issues with this calculation, and I realize that. I know that recent trends can dictate who starts. I know that shooting percentage isn’t calculated in for field goals, three-pointers and free throws. That has to do with efficiency. But, I just took the most simplified form of basketball and crunched it down to one simple number.

Who has been the most productive Illinois basketball player so far? That obviously goes to Trent Frazier. He has been sensational this year for the Illini. He is producing 0.725 good things per minute. Ayo Dosunmu is next on the team with 0.638 good things per minute. He has been struggling lately and isn’t close to Frazier, but Ayo still remains second on the team.

Both Kipper Nichols and Aaron Jordan are tied for third on the team with 0.616 good things per minute. They are both close to Ayo for the No.2 spot. The No. 5 spot goes to Giorgi Bezhanishvili. This may come as a surprise but he is pulling in 0.608 good things per minute. So, the same starting lineup seems to be the best option. Trent Frazier is the No. 1 guard and should be handling the ball. Ayo, Jordan, Nichols and Giorgi should fill out the starting lineup.

The bench is where things get interesting. The No. 1 player coming off the bench for the Illini should be Alan Griffin, according to this calculation. He doesn’t get a ton of minutes but when he does, he produces for the Illini. He is producing 0.598 good things per minute this season. His number would be even higher if his turnovers were lower.

According to this calculation, the next player off the bench should be Tevian Jones. I realize that Jones has been suspended for a while now, and that is probably why Illinois is losing some of these games. Jones is a vital bench player. He is producing 0.593 good things per minute of action.

Samba Kane would be the next player off the bench for the Illini. Kane isn’t getting enough minutes as it is, but this stat shows him producing 0.563 good things per minute. He is our most productive big man off the bench.

Griffin, Jones and Kane should be the first three players off the bench for the Illini, and I would have no problem with that. These three are solid players and when Jones returns from suspension, I would imagine there would be more minutes shifted his way.

There were two players who are getting a lot of minutes without the production I am looking for. Andres Feliz is only producing 0.504 good things per minute. He gets decent minutes but his points aren’t great and he turns the ball over a lot. That is why his number is lower.

The big one for me is Da’Monte Williams. He is only producing 0.418 good things per minute. Monte has received a lot of minutes this season but the points aren’t there. He can’t shoot. That is his main bugaboo right now.

This calculation isn’t exact. There are some flaws with it. But, it does show you how many points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks, minus turnovers, each player is getting per minute. Productivity is needed for the Illini and some players just aren’t producing. Things need to change with the rotation.