The departures from the Illinois basketball team this past season scare the fan base slightly.
There are a few players who will be missed, but their departure won’t make a huge impact on the team. Cameron Liss and Matic Vesel are two of those players. They averaged a combined 0.7 points per game for the Illini. But, then you have a handful of other players whose production needs to made up somewhere with the new additions.
From last year’s squad, Illinois is going to need to replace 57.3-percent of the scoring. The departure of seven players is a lot to handle, led by Leron Black who averaged 15.3 PPG. Michel Finke was the next highest scoring departure at 9.8 PPG. Illinois then had Mark Alstork and Mark Smith both average 5.8 PPG, and Te’Jon Lucas was right behind them at 5.7 PPG.
What is described above is what needs to be replaced this upcoming season. Do the Illini have enough coming in to make up for the lost production? Can some of the current players raise their games to another level to help bridge the gap? I think the answer is, yes.
Just to break even from last season, Illinois has to find an extra 43.1 PPG from the current roster and the incoming recruits. If you just look at the incoming class of 2018, that would be an average of 7.18 PPG for each player. I know some players aren’t going to come close to that, but there are a few who I think could easily eclipse that mark.
I believe Giorgi Bezhanishvili will likely average between 1 and 3 PPG this upcoming season. It would surprise me if he received a ton of playing time. So, let’s go in the middle and say he averages 2 PPG for the Illini. That would leave the other five members of the class of 2018 to pick up the other 41.1 PPG, which averages out to 8.22 PPG per player.
Purely based on rawness, I think Samba Kane will likely average under that 8.22 PPG number. I do think he sees a decent amount of playing time, though. With the struggles of staying on the court last season, Greg Eboigbodin better watch out for Kane and the potential to take his starting spot. I think Kane’s size will help in the scoring department as well. I see him averaging somewhere in the ballpark of 5 PPG for the Illini.
With Kane coming in at 5 PPG, that would leave the other four recruits to pick up 36.1 PPG, which is an average of 9.025 PPG individually. The rest of the recruits who are new to the team can all put up points. This will help the team out tremendously. I think the next player on the list of scoring would be Andres Feliz.
Feliz is coming in as the primary backup to Trent Frazier now that Lucas has departed. He could score well at the junior college level, and I expect that to transfer over to the DI level as well. Points wise, all I can realistically ask is that he matches Lucas from last season at 5.7 PPG. I think he can do that, and I am going to bump him up to 6 PPG.
This would leave 30.1 PPG to make up for the final three recruits. That averages out to about 10 PPG per player. I think Brad Underwood is going to go with a nice rotation of players, and this will help newcomers get time on the floor.
Alan Griffin is a sharpshooter and will be used a lot next season. I see Griffin getting somewhere in the area of 6 PPG as well. He has the ability to come in and knock down a few big three-point shots. He is going to be an underrated addition to this team. That leaves 24.1 PPG left for Tevian Jones and Ayo Dosunmu.
Jones could potentially start for the Illini but if he doesn’t, I see him being a prime backup who gets a lot of minutes. He will score a decent amount of points as well. I see Jones around 9 PPG this upcoming season. This would leave Dosunmu to make up for 15.1 PPG that is left over.
I don’t think Dosunmu will hit that many points during his freshman campaign. If he does it would be a remarkable feat. I see him getting around 11 PPG for the Illini in year one. That would leave 4.1 PPG for the rest of the roster to pick up.
Between Frazier, Kipper Nichols, Aaron Jordan, Da’Monte Williams and Eboigbodin, I see them easily getting 4.1 PPG more than last season.
Next: 5 areas of improvement for the Illini
The veterans on the team will be looked to for leadership, but the newcomers are going to need to step up early on in their careers. There is a lot of talent on this team. I honestly think the Illini can and will be better this upcoming season.