Illinois Basketball: Three paths to postseason play for the Illini
By Eric Bruce
If the Illinois basketball team can make a late season run, what kind run will it be? And to what end?
Starting on Tuesday with a home game against Rutgers, the Illini enter the final half of the Big Ten conference schedule at 1-8, and 11-11 overall. This remaining stretch of conference play sees the Illini in nine games over 26 days. It is well established that I am no math whiz, but my calculations reveal this averages to about one game every three days. How will the Illini handle this intensity and can they still find a way to play in the postseason?
Here are three paths to postseason play.
The first scenario has the Illini ripping off eight or nine wins. I know, I know, incredibly unlikely. But, we all recall what Brad Underwood did with his Oklahoma State team last year (winning 10 of the last 13, including six of the last nine conference games, to finish the season with 20 wins). The Illini’s climb to 20 is a little tougher in that they need to win nine straight to get there. That would put them at 10-8 in conference play. Clearly, they’d be guaranteed a tournament bid. I would venture that a 19-win season, with a 9-9 conference finish would also do the trick.
Of course, this kind of run might constitute an actual miracle, prompting the Vatican to certify it as such. Standing in the way of this miracle are three very large roadblocks. While there are many winnable games in this final stretch, the Illini have to play Ohio State (kenpom No. 15) on February 4 in Columbus; Michigan State (kenpom No. 5) in East Lansing on February 20; and they host Purdue (kenpom No.3) just two days later. Clearly, these three games alone make the proposal of eight or nine wins incredibly difficult. Some would say it’s impossible.
The second scenario that brings post-season play for the Illini is one that I see being quite realistic. In this scenario the Illini lose all three games to their ranked opponents but close out conference play 6-3 or 5-4, finding themselves firmly in the running for an NIT bid. Here, the Illini defeat Rutgers, Wisconsin, Penn State, and Nebraska all in Champaign. They also beat Indiana and/or Rutgers on the road to get those five or six wins.
The Illini would finish the regular season with six or seven conference wins, and 16 or 17 wins overall. It’s likely they would need a win in the Big Ten tournament, especially if they finish with only 16 wins, or an unexpected signature victory over one of their remaining ranked opponents (I think OSU is the best bet there), to get to the NIT. Of course, this is not the place the Illini faithful really want to be, but this is a very “doable” scenario and is certainly more likely than the other two.
And that brings me to my final design for Illini postseason play. Illinois only wins three or four more games (a highly realistic prediction based on the way the season has played out to date). But…wait for it…they make a historic run in the Big Ten Tournament to win it all and find themselves, perhaps, the most unlikely team dancing in March. While it may seem impossible, two Illinois teams have come extremely close to doing this in the last 20 years.
Most recently, the 2007-08 Illini basketball team made a run to the conference tournament title game only to be turned back from a history-making NCAA tournament berth. That year the Illini went 5-13 in conference play, and 13-18 overall, before beating Penn State, Purdue, and Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament. They fell in the title game to No. 6 Wisconsin by a score of 61-48.
But, one of my favorite Illini basketball memories was the run the 1998-99 team made in the Big Ten Tournament. This team ended regular season play 11-17 overall, and 3-13 in conference play (after starting 0-7). I loved the players on this team including sophomore Sergio McClean, redshirt freshman Cory Bradford, and true freshmen Robert Archibald and Lucas Johnson. An intriguing connection to this year’s Illini team was that Frank Williams, father of Da’Monte Williams, was also on this team. However, the elder Williams was a redshirt that year and didn’t play.
The connection to this year’s Illini team goes deeper than the generally poor conference play and the Williams’ father/son link. This was a young team overall with only one senior and two juniors. It was also “guard heavy” in that the tallest players on the team were 6-foot-10 (including Archibald and redshirt sophomore Fess Hawkins). The team boasted six sophomores – two of them redshirt – and four freshmen.
In comparison, this year’s Illini team, at least with respect to those who actually play, has one senior – 5th-year transfer Mark Alstork – and three juniors in Aaron Jordan, Michael Finke, and Leron Black (Finke and Black being redshirts). Kipper Nichols and Te’Jon Lucas are sophomores, and the rest (Trent Frazier, Mark Smith, Da’Monte Williams, Greg Eboigbodin, and Matic Vesel) are true freshmen.
In the 1999 Big Ten Tournament, the Illini faced four ranked opponents. The Illini defeated No. 23 Minnesota; No. 17 Indiana, and No. 11 Ohio State before falling to No. 2 Michigan State (a team that made a Final Four run that year).
The bubble burst, but the Illini went on to a period of greatness after that, with eight straight NCAA Tournament appearances (including the 2005 National Title Runner-Up), that included four Big Ten regular season titles (including two outright), and two Big Ten Tournament titles.
Much like this year’s team, the Illini team of the 1998-99 season were considered to be on the cusp of something special and indeed they were. Lon Kruger was in his second year as head coach, and he had a very special young core of players. Everyone knew that great things were coming.
Underwood, in his first year, has proven that he has a system on offense and defense that will be one the most formidable in the Big Ten once his players fully learn it. Everyone who honestly assesses this year’s team knows how close they are to being 16-6, or something very close to that, despite their youth and general inexperience.
In a nutshell, it is easy to see how this Illini team might yet surprise and shock the college basketball world with an unconventional path to postseason play. While the second option (NIT berth) remains the most probable, either of the other two scenarios is possible, yet highly unlikely.
Next: 5 takeaways from the Illini win over Indiana
Regardless of what happens, I am excited to see how the Illini finish the year. Whether it be with an exciting run to postseason play or merely an exhibition of what they will be after they mature a year (and Ayo arrives), I advise that you buckle in and enjoy the ride.