This season is demonstrating that it isn’t enough to merely avoid “bad losses” for the Illinois basketball team.
The mantra of “no-bad losses” is engrained in the psyche of college basketball fans across the country. Not only can a bad loss or two impact a team’s seeding in the NCAA Tournament, but it can also determine whether a team gets in at all. However, win the games you should win and go .500 in conference play, you’ll be dancing come March.
During the preseason, when the schedules are released, fans like myself determine whether the non-conference portion of the schedule will be tough or weak, and what potential bad losses are looming at the hands of some lowly “mid-major.”
Of course, there are many mid-major teams that are better than most power five teams. But none-the-less, in my experience, most fans of power five teams see a loss to any but the very best mid-majors (think Wichita State, Gonzaga, and Cincinnati) as a bad loss. And a loss to a power five school, even a conference bottom feeder, is forgiven except in rare instances. Illini fans are certainly no exception to these general rules.
Heading into this season and looking at the Illini’s relatively soft non-conference schedule, it was clear to see that the Illini needed desperately to avoid bad losses before starting Big Ten play in earnest. It was a strange year in that the Illini had two conference games in early December because of a shorter traditional conference calendar due to an early Big Ten Tournament start. Usually, there are a couple conference games in early March, but because the Big Ten Tournament takes place this year in New York City at Madison Square Garden, the tournament begins one week earlier. This is because the Big East Tournament was already booked to begin that second week of March. Obviously, that means the tournament will end one week before Selection Sunday. Whether that will be a good thing or bad for the Big Ten teams that make the tournament will be a hotly debated topic of momentum versus rest.
Not including the Big Ten games of course, the Illini emerged from the traditional non-conference part of the season 10-3, with only one win over a kenpom top 50 team (a sweet one against No. 40 Mizzou) and close losses to Wake Forest (kenpom No. 84), UNLV (kenpom No. 89), and New Mexico State (kenpom No. 57). In my view, none of these would be considered bad loses in the traditional sense (which isn’t to say they weren’t lost badly: a different metric in my book).
Obviously, Wake Forest is a power five school, though they are having a rough year that is likely to only get worse as they slog through probably the toughest conference in the country. UNLV is in a non-power five conference – the Mountain West – and the verdict is out on this one. I wouldn’t call this a bad loss at this point. The Runnin’ Rebels are 13-4 and loaded with talent, but own only two wins over kenpom top 100 teams (No. 72 Utah and No. 95 Illinois). If they have a better than predicted conference showing, and at the very least contend for the Mountain West conference championship, they should be dancing.
New Mexico State of the Western Athletic Conference has shown the country that it is a serious basketball team. They have three wins over the kenpom top 100, including over No. 30 Miami. They also beat their main non-conference rival, New Mexico, and their top conference rival, Grand Canyon. They are currently 15-3 with loses to St. Mary’s (No. 20); USC (No. 45), and San Diego (No. 109). They are off to a 3-0 start in conference play and will likely run the table, or come close to it. At the end of the day, they probably need to win their conference tournament to make the Big Dance, but losing to this team was certainly not a bad loss for the Illini.
This 10-3 start to non-conference play is what I expected. But, what I didn’t predict was a 0-5 start to Big Ten play. I expected the Illini to be 1-1 entering January, with a win over Northwestern and a loss to Maryland. As we are all very painfully aware, the Illini “woulda, shoulda, coulda” won both of those games. But alas, both games were early Christmas gifts for the Cats and the Terps.
Then January started with a familiar thud as the Illini have dropped three conference games in a row. Honestly, I would have expected the Illini to only be 2-3 at this point (wins against NW and Iowa). But, 0-5 was not on my radar.
So what of the other half of the equation of “no bad losses+.500 conference record=dancing shoes?” Obviously, the Illini are firmly in the danger zone. Some fans are already chalking this season up to a hopeful NIT bid and laying the groundwork for next year. And they might be right because for the Illini to earn dancing shoes they need to go 9-4 the rest of the way. A very, very difficult task.
All of the remaining Big Ten games are against kenpom top 100 teams but for the two against Rutgers. Six of the games are against kenpom top 50 teams: Two games against No. 6 Michigan State; one (mercifully) at home against No. 2 Purdue; one against No. 16 Ohio State; and at home against No. 47 Penn State. At this point, it is hard to see how that doesn’t get the Illini four losses alone. Maybe even five as they play OSU on the road.
The Illini also have two games remaining against the following teams: No. 81 Nebraska (starting tonight in Lincoln); No. 78 Wisconsin; No. 88 Indiana; and No. 133 Rutgers. Don’t forget how dangerous this Rutgers team is with an overtime loss in Lansing to Michigan State.
Next: 5 takeaways from the Illini loss to Iowa
If the Illini cannot pull off a minor miracle and win nine of the next 13 games, they will probably need to win the Big Ten tournament. Now, I have no doubt that this team will continue to show great improvement and toughness as the season continues. But the mental lapses and inability to put together complete games have put the Illini in such a deep hole it is hard to see how they can climb out. They can start tonight with a much-needed win over a so-so Cornhusker team.