Writing Illini
Fansided

Illinois Basketball: Can the Illini still make the NCAA tournament?

By Rees Woodcock

CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Illinois Fighting Illini guard Aaron Jordan (23) dribbles to the basket after Illinois Fighting Illini forward Leron Black (12) sets a pick on New Mexico State Aggies guard Zach Lofton (23) during the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the New Mexico State Aggies on December 16, 2017 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - DECEMBER 16: Illinois Fighting Illini guard Aaron Jordan (23) dribbles to the basket after Illinois Fighting Illini forward Leron Black (12) sets a pick on New Mexico State Aggies guard Zach Lofton (23) during the game between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the New Mexico State Aggies on December 16, 2017 at the United Center in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by Quinn Harris/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images) /
facebooktwitterreddit

The Illinois basketball team dropped to 10-7 overall and 0-4 in Big Ten play on Saturday.

This was not the start Illini fans wanted but it is the reality that we live in today. Through the ups and downs this season one question remains; can the Illini still make the NCAA tournament?

After the loss to Michigan on Saturday, that feat became much harder. They need a few decent road wins to go on to a tournament resume. That hasn’t happened, though. The best “road” win the Illini have had was the Braggin’ Rights game and that is considered a neutral court.

If you are looking at the RPI, Illinois is actually 9-7 because their win against Augustana doesn’t count because it is not a DI program, so that puts the Illini even further behind the eight ball. But, Illinois does have some things going for them.

Illinois is currently No. 61 in the nation in strength of schedule, which isn’t terrible. I thought that would be much worse before the season started but some of the teams on the Illini schedule ended up being better than I thought. That number definitely needs to improve, though.

The Illini have a win in the top 50 of the RPI – Missouri – so that is a good victory. Also, all of their losses have come within the top 150 of the RPI as well.

The upcoming schedule for Illinois should produce some wins for the program. Iowa is next at home on Thursday. This is a big game for the Illini to get their first Big Ten victory. I think they can considering the Hawkeyes aren’t good this season. The following two games are at Nebraska and at Wisconsin, both of which are winnable as well. I assume the Illini will drop one of two, though.

Illinois would then be 12-8 on the season. Michigan State is next and that is a loss. Indiana and Rutgers follow and these two are at home. I chalk both of these up as wins. The Illini move to 14-9.

Ohio State is tougher than what I first thought, so the next game on the road will be a loss. Illinois then has Wisconsin and Penn State at home. Both of these can be wins. The Illini move to 16-10.

The following two contests are at Indiana and home against Nebraska. I could see Illinois beating the Hoosiers in Bloomington and coming back home and winning too. This would move them to 18-10 on the year.

Illinois’ final stretch is at Michigan State, home Purdue and at Rutgers. The game against Michigan State is a loss. I am slightly worried about Purdue, but this would be the perfect opportunity for the Illini to beat a top 25 program. I am going to give this game to the Illini. They then travel to Rutgers and come away with a win. This would make the final record for the Illini 20-11.

Next: 5 takeaways from the Illini loss to Michigan

The Illini would likely have to win one game in the Big Ten Tournament to get into the postseason, though. With the RPI the way it is now, Illinois would only have two wins over the top 50. That is tough, but I think 21 wins and being a Big Ten team would get you in. That is how the Illini make the postseason.

Home/Illinois Basketball