Illinois Basketball: That’s the way the ball bounces for the Illini

Illinois basketball fans emotions have been ping-ponging all over the place the last few months.

From regular season careening to a head coaching change to re-commits and release requests, fans have been jerked left and right this year.  While it has been exciting, interesting, and painful – sometimes all in one day – things should settle down very soon.

I have some opinions about the state of Illini basketball, but before I turn to that, a recap of the madness is in order.

Illinois started non-conference play fully healthy; with fans and players alike expecting this was the year the Illini would see meaningful March basketball again.  After a 4-0 start, the Illini entered a stretch of games that would test them.

After dropping three games in a row to Winthrop, West Virginia, and Florida State (all NCAA Tournament teams), the relatively dormant anti-Groce fan sentiments were back from last season, and in full throat.

Then came a six-game win streak, including wins over VCU and BYU, that again gave oxygen to the dim flame of hope that Illini fans maintained. Many felt that the Illini were right where they needed to be, with just one bad loss (Winthrop) and a favorable Big Ten schedule laid out before them.

Alas, it was not to be.  Or was it?

Much like the embarrassing and head-scratching loss to West Virginia where the Illini were never in the game, and might as well have not been in the damn building, they were blown out by Maryland in the Big Ten season opener.  The rumblings about Groce hadn’t gone away, but they had died down again.

This loss to the Terps, however, not only breathed new life into the anti-Groce movement, but it spawned meaningful speculation about who would replace him. Hardly a day went by in January and early February without bloggers and sports writers putting out lists or doing profiles of coaches to replace Groce.

The Illini continued their slide to the bottom of the Big Ten winning only three of their next nine games. They were 3-7 and by this time even I had written a piece on who I wanted to see replace Groce. The season was over and, top 15 recruiting class be damned, this guy had to go.

Then the Illini won four of their next six games, including their first true road victory in more than a year, and an impressive win over Michigan State.  Hope was renewed. The Illini were 18-12 overall, and 8-9 in conference play entering their last game of the regular season at Rutgers.

The Scarlet Knights were dismal all season with only two conference wins.  The Illini were on a roll and appeared destined to enter the Big Ten Conference Tournament on the right side of the bubble, going .500 in conference play and with 19 wins overall and an impressive RPI and SOS.

But we all know how that played out.  In spectacular and disgraceful fashion, the Illini lost a close one to Rutgers.  The Illini’s conference record was good enough to get a bye in the first round of the Big Ten Conference Tournament, but they ended up losing to Michigan in the second round game.

In the month since that loss, Illini nation has been pushed and pulled with basketball-related news.  Most fans seemed to greet AD Josh Whitman’s firing of John Groce with relief, and in many cases, celebration.

Whether the fans thought it was long-overdue or merely inevitable, most thought it was the right call.  And Whitman’s decision to bestow the acting head coach title on Groce’s erstwhile assistant, Jamall Walker, to lead the Illini in its NIT bid, was also favorably viewed.

But who was going to replace Groce?  The speculation was wild and rampant.  And almost uniformly wrong.

In a move no one saw coming, just three weeks ago – on March 18 – Josh Whitman announced Brad Underwood of Oklahoma State University as the new head coach of the Illini.  Many fans hadn’t really heard this name before and were left wondering who this was and why he was gifted with one of the best jobs in college basketball.

But, those who pay a lot of attention to college basketball knew exactly who Brad Underwood was and his hire drew fast and nearly unanimous praise from knowledgeable fans and the college basketball intelligentsia.

What about the recruits?  Groce had finally landed a top notch recruiting class by all accounts. Would they stay? And most importantly to many, but not all, would five-star center Jeremiah Tilmon of East St. Louis stay or would Missouri’s new head coach and East St. Louis native, Cuonzo Martin, somehow lure Tilmon away?

Central to that question seemed to be Underwood keeping Walker on his staff.  Walker was the primary recruiter of Tilmon and three-star guard Javon Pickett of Belleville East.

Four-star guard Trent Frazier, who many think is the most important recruit in this class, almost immediately indicated that he was an Illini. Da’Monte Williams and Pickett weren’t far behind, tweeting that they would be Illini guys too. And finally, just last week, Tilmon indicated that he would stay as well, re-tweeting his original commitment tweet.

Walker stayed, but Tilmon, and then Pickett, left. On the same day that Tilmon asked to be released, the Illini announced an exciting, but fraught, hire. Underwood added Orlando Antigua to his staff. The recently fired head coach of the University of South Florida is a very well-known entity in college basketball.

So, as of right now anyway, the waters have calmed somewhat, though they’re still choppy in the immediate aftermath of the storm. Here is what I think of all of this.

First of all, Underwood’s hire was a masterstroke by Whitman. This guy is a coach first. The Illini needed that. In a relatively short time, I think everyone will see that Underwood heralds a very bright future for Illinois basketball. There is nothing more I can say on that point that hasn’t already been said.

But, part of the deal was that Whitman would provide resources to Underwood. In that connection, he gave Underwood $850,000 to hire three on-court assistants. That is really good money.

Underwood’s decision to keep Walker on his staff begs the question of what was the point? The conventional wisdom was that Walker was the key to keeping the “Metro East” (the area of Illinois just east of St. Louis, which includes East St. Louis and Belleville) recruits intact. And it appeared to have worked, except when it didn’t.

What was that about? There was clearly a miscalculation, and if Walker couldn’t do the one thing it appears he was kept on staff to do, could Underwood have done better than Walker? How does this bode for Walker’s recruiting in the future?

And then there is the Antigua hire. Antigua’s reputation as an outstanding recruiter is well deserved. He recruited for John Calipari at Memphis and Kentucky, where he secured some of the Wildcats top recruits. For some fans, bloggers, and writers, this hire was a stroke of genius. Others saw it as troubling, including the Chicago Tribune’s David Haugh in an article here.

I can see why many find the hire troubling due to the fact that USF is being investigated for academic fraud under Antigua’s stewardship. I cannot find much information about the investigation, but we know that Antigua’s brother, an assistant coach at USF, resigned immediately after the investigation was announced. This leads me to believe he was the primary party responsible for the problem. But who knows? I certainly don’t and neither does hardly anyone else, besides Antigua himself.

And that is why I cannot worry about this choice.  I have to assume, knowing Whitman’s fidelity to integrity, loyalty, and the University of Illinois, that they spoke to Antigua in great detail about this issue and decided to take a chance.

I don’t believe for a second that Whitman would let Underwood hire Antigua if they weren’t satisfied that he was not the source of the problem or that there isn’t really a problem at all.  It boils down to whether you trust Whitman or not. I trust Whitman, and I think for good reason. Time will tell whether that trust is misplaced, but I doubt it.

Antigua’s recruiting prowess is widely heralded. And that is why I am less worried about Tilmon’s request for release. I am not one to think losing Tilmon is not a big deal. It is a big deal. He is an excellent prospect with a very high ceiling. He would have started at Illinois in a very dynamic and fun Underwood offense.

But, I am not going to fault Tilmon for his decision. I know many of you do, and I understand that. Many of you ask, how could he not want to play at U of I? I feel that I really do.

But remember your 18-year-old self and ask what you would do when confronted with almost limitless opportunities? It is hard to say if you’re honest. Personally, I think he is making a mistake, as I do with any player who chooses a school other than Illinois.But I also think everything will work out just fine for the Illini, and that is all I care about.

I am not worried about Northwestern, for instance, taking Illinois’ spot as the dominant state team. The Wildcats had great success this year, and I rooted for them. But the fact is that a subpar Illini team owned them this year. And better Illini teams will continue to do so in the future.

I am not worried that the Illini will be out recruited and lose in-state talent. Because I know they will. They will also get some of that talent.

So worry not, Illini fans. And what else can you do, really?

That brings me to my final point. Everyone is getting incredibly worked up and worried about Illini basketball. Many fans tend to take it personally when a recruit says no, or when one changes his mind. But, as almost everyone who is reading this knows, none of us can do a damn thing about any of it.

Underwood is an excellent coach. He’ll get excellent players who fit his system. He’ll miss on some recruits, obviously, but everyone does. It’s really no different from any other team. What matters is what he’ll do with the talent he does get.

Next: Starting lineup without Jeremiah Tilmon and Javon Pickett

At some point, you have to sit back and relax and trust that Whitman and company are doing their best to protect the house. There is no good reason, at least for now, to think otherwise.