The Illinois basketball team just finished up the regular season with a loss to the Rutgers Scarlet Knights.
This was not a good way to finish things up and it put the team behind the eight ball heading into the Big Ten Tournament. I am thinking Illinois needs to win at least two games to remain on the bubble. If they can win three games and get to the conference championship then I think they are a lock for the NCAA tournament.
But it is going to take a lot to win two games, let alone get to the championship round. Illinois tips off at 11 a.m. CT on Thursday against No. 8 Michigan. This game will be tough considering the teams split in the regular season.
Illinois needs to come out victorious here, though. They need to win and advance to the next round to play No. 1 Purdue. I think they can but it is a toss-up game right now.
Illinois Fighting Illini Basketball
One thing that does worry me is that John Groce has struggled against Michigan since becoming the Illinois head coach. Since the 2012-13 season, Groce and the Illini are 2-8 overall and 0-2 in the Big Ten Tournament against the Wolverines.
Michigan has been a thorn in the side of the Illini since Groce took over and hopefully, that doesn’t continue on Thursday. I also hope the trend of losing to Michigan in the conference tournament doesn’t continue as well.
In the 2014 Big Ten Tournament, the Illini were making a push toward the end of the season, much like this year. They beat Indiana in the first round and if they beat Michigan in the second round I think they would have been in. But, the Illini fell to the Wolverines in heartbreaking fashion and made the NIT.
The following year the Illini finished the season strong again but they didn’t show up in the Big Ten Tournament. They fell to Michigan in the first round 73-55. This was an embarrassing game and they followed that up with another embarrassing game against Alabama in the NIT.
Let’s just say Groce probably doesn’t like to play Michigan at any time, let alone the Big Ten Tournament. If you really look at his history in the conference tournament, he has struggled at times against more than just Michigan.
Groce has coached eight games heading into this Big Ten Tournament. In those eight games, he has four wins. That is a .500 winning rate, which isn’t great. The most painful part when looking at his record in the Big Ten Tournament is the number of games he has been blown out.
In the eight games that Groce has coached in the conference tournament, he has had three double-digit losses. That means in arguably the biggest game of the season each year this team gets manhandled by their opponent. They almost have as many double-digit losses (3) as they do wins (4). That is not good.
So while I want to be a rah-rah guy heading into this Big Ten Tournament, just be aware of the pitfalls. Groce has not been good this time of year and when the team gets down they usually are way down.
Next: Where does the program go from here?
I hope for a win against Michigan on Thursday and then another one on Friday. This team has the talent to make a run. I just want them to send Malcolm Hill out with a postseason berth.