Illinois Basketball: Strategy for beating the Michigan State Spartans
By Eric Bruce
The Illinois basketball team plays the most important game of their season tonight against a typically late surging Michigan State program.
Illinois has managed to salvage a season that appeared destined to end in a flaming wreck. In my opinion, with 17 wins, a top 15 strength of schedule, and top 60 RPI, the Illini are already guaranteed a NIT berth.
And, you say, “so what.” I would certainly agree with you that a season that sees the Illini in the NIT should be rare, and bookended by multiple NCAA Tournament appearances. So let’s get to the meat of the issue.
The Illini still have a viable and very doable path to the NCAA Tournament. Something that would have been completely unthinkable two weeks ago is now suddenly a distinct possibility.
Here they are, only needing to win out conference play to get on the bubble. That’s right. I said it. This year, a 19-12 overall record, coupled with a 9-9 Big Ten record, might just do the trick. This depends on many variables, but if the Illini win their next two, finishing .500 in conference play, combined with good metrics, keeping them out will be a hard choice for the selection committee.
With a conference tournament win, I think about everyone would agree that the Illini are a lock for the Big Dance. In fact, if the Illini finish conference play with a win against MSU and then on the road against a challenging Rutgers team, I think they’re a lock for at least one conference tournament win.
But first, Sparty.
It is senior night in Champaign. The Illini will celebrate the contributions of Tracy Abrams, Malcolm Hill, Maverick Morgan, Jaylon Tate, Alex Austin, and Mike Thorne Jr. Of these six, I expect to see big minutes from Hill, Morgan, and Abrams.
I also expect all three to have big nights, but most of all from Hill and Morgan (as I outlined here). Thorne could see some time too because of MSU’s size issues. The Spartans lost 6-foot-9 senior center, Gavin Schilling, to a season-ending injury before the year started.
An uncharacteristically thin front court has seen freshmen Nick Ward, a 6-foot-8, 250-pound bruiser, and 6-foot-7 Miles Bridges getting all the time they can handle. On the upside, these are freshmen. On the downside, these freshmen have been playing all year long and are getting really good.
Ward is tied for second in field goal percentage in conference play. He also rebounds extremely well, tied for No. 15 in that category.
Bridges is a phenomenal presence on the floor. He is the No. 7 scorer, just two spots behind Hill. And perhaps more importantly in this game, he is the No. 2 rebounder in the Big Ten. The only Illini player that can get close is Leron Black, ranking No. 15.
I fully realize that Michigan State is strong at all positions, especially at the point. Freshman Cassius Winston and junior “Tum Tum” Nairn Jr. are the nuclei of an excellent back court. Because of those two, MSU is #2 in assists in conference play, with freshman Winston holding the No. 1 position at 5.5 assists per game.
But to me, if the Illini can find a way to slow the roll of these two “diaper dandies” (in the words of the great Dick Vitale) then they can and should win this game. So how do they do that?
The key to this game for Illinois will be playing solid defense, similar to what we have seen in the last three outings. Illinois will need to ramp up the defensive intensity for 40 minutes, perhaps higher than in any game to date.
Morgan will be critical to that effort, as will Black, and Kipper Nichols. These three will need to be relentless on the glass. It might be too much to ask that this Illinois team out rebound MSU, but if the Illini can draw even in that category that will give the offense an opportunity to shine.
And on that front, Hill is due for a special game. He doesn’t need to take it over. It will take the proverbial team effort if Illinois is to win. But Hill, on senior night in his last conference home game in a sold out State Farm Center, is an event that has “special”‘ written all over it. I’d like to see Hill take the ball inside and get MSU’s freshmen stars in foul trouble early. I expect to see Hill take multiple trips to the line.
And like rebounds on defense, I think free throw shooting will be the game-changer on offense. This is one area where Illinois is slightly better than the Spartans. Illinois will need to exploit all of those little differences. But the nice thing about getting to the line frequently is someone on the other team is getting in foul trouble. That means they are riding the pine, and that opens up great opportunities for a crafty, older team like Illinois to exploit.
Finally, Illinois needs to take care of the ball. This is another area the Illini are better at than Michigan State. A low turnover game for Illinois, coupled with tough D to force some turnovers on MSU will also be critical.
Next: Analysis and predictions for the Michigan State game
In summary, play tough defense, crash the boards, get Michigan State in foul trouble early, hit free throws, and take care of the ball. If the Illini can do all of that, the offense will take care of itself, and we will win!