Illinois Basketball: Analysis and predictions for the Michigan State game
The Illinois basketball team continues their march toward March as they take on the Michigan State Spartans on Wednesday night.
This is a game the Illini need to win to potentially make the NCAA tournament. They need to win their final two contests plus at least one game in the Big Ten tournament to potentially go dancing.
Here is some analysis and predictions for the game from the Writing Illini staff.
Eric Bruce
It’s senior night in Champaign and it should be an electric atmosphere with the Illini giving away free tickets to students. Even with home court advantage, the Illini will need all of the help they can get. Therefore, I think big games from two seniors will be a critical part of an overall team effort.
The obvious is that Hill needs to have a special game. He always plays with great intensity and passion and always seems to find a way to get his points. But in this game, on this night, I’d like to see him go off. Look for 25 points from Hill (including 10 from the line) and an intense defensive effort.
Morgan is the other senior who needs to overachieve. The Spartans are strong but small. Sparty’s tallest active player is 6-foot-8 freshman, Nick Ward. His backup is 6-foot-7 freshman, Miles Bridges. Morgan will get help from other sources, but he needs to own the boards in a way that he hasn’t done for a while. Sounds easy, but Ward and Bridges are prolific rebounders, with Bridges currently ranked No. 5 in that category in the Big Ten (Illinois’ best – Leron Black – is ranked No. 15, tied with Ward). The Illini will need a big rebounding night from Morgan (and company), and double-digit scoring.
Overall, if the Illini bring the defensive intensity that it has displayed of late, crash the boards, and keep the turnovers low, I think their offense will carry them to a 76-70 win in a close and exciting game, with free throws down the stretch being the difference.
Prediction: Illinois 76, Michigan State 70
Zach Leslie
Illinois is coming in hot. It will be senior night and it will be packed out. There is a lot of pressure on this game, and will this team perform? In my conference predictions article back in December, I had Illinois winning this game. I stand by it. I think this may be the most electric Big Ten game we’ve seen this year.
Prediction: Illinois 79, Michigan State 76
John Everette
Both teams are 4-1 in their past five games, and both teams are playing their best basketball at the end of the year. This is going to be a big battle, and a true test, for the Illini.
What has me hopeful, however, is that MSU has played four of their last five at home, whereas the Illini have been on the road for three of their last five — all wins. If the State Farm Center is rocking tomorrow, as it should be, it might swing the game in the Illini’s favor, especially with MSU rolling out four freshmen — albeit, very talented freshmen.
What has me more hopeful? In their last six games, the Illini are holding opponents to 39.7-percent shooting and just 64.2 points per game. Where was this defense all year?
Illinois wins a close one, 67-61.
Prediction: Illinois 67, Michigan State 61
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Rees Woodcock
Illinois is in a position to make a run at the NCAA tournament and that is exciting. It is fun to watch meaningful basketball in March once again. They have won three straight games and I want to see them win three more. Getting to that 20 game win mark is crucial for their chances of dancing.
In the road win against Nebraska on Sunday, three Illini seniors led the way in scoring. Look for that to be mimicked against the Spartans as well. These seniors know each and every game is a one-game season right now. Win and they advance but lose and the chances of dancing are over.
The seniors need to show up against Michigan State, but that doesn’t mean the supporting cast can relax. We need to have Te’Jon Lucas continue his great point guard play. If I didn’t know better I would think he was a senior as well with his leadership on the court.
Illinois also needs solid bench production as well. In the game against Nebraska, the Illini bench produced 15 points. Those were crucial in the victory and they will need that production again against a much underrated Michigan State team. I think the seniors show up on senior night for the Illini and lead this team to their fourth win in a row. They will beat the Spartans 65-62.
Prediction: Illinois 65, Michigan State 62