The short answer is… maybe.
As with anything in life, and especially with this Illinois basketball team, the outcome depends on many variables.
Can they win a true road game? If they lose on Saturday at Penn State, my “quest for 7” might die a swift, cruel death.
If they win? Well, Penn State did beat Minnesota at home and Michigan State at pseudo-home, so it would definitely be of some value to Illinois’ resume.
Right now, the Illini sit at 13-8 overall and 3-5 in the Big Ten. They have 10 games left. 7 more wins would, you guessed it, get them to 20 wins overall and a plus-.500 record in conference play.
6 more wins in the regular season and 1 in the Big Ten tournament would get them to .500 in conference play and the same 20-win plateau.
Even then, this team would still be on the bubble. Anything less, however, would almost certainly result in yet another NIT appearance.
For some different perspectives, let’s go to Twitter and Facebook.
if Thorne and Tate don't play and Abrams gets limited tick yes, if not, no chance
— MK (@krampy) January 26, 2017
This is a popular sentiment. Fans want Lucas at point, where he’s shown more natural ability than Abrams and Tate, and Morgan at center, where he’s much more mobile and offensively versatile than Thorne.
This much is evident, and it all starts this Saturday at the awful black hole known as Bryce Jordan Center.
@jobin_theman yes you’ve got @ rutgers/Iowa. until we see the team not look absolutely terrible on the road, can’t see it
— Dave (@nyillini311) January 26, 2017
One thing we will examine shortly is the remaining schedule. And yes, the back end is technically “easier” than the front end, minus Wisconsin, but nothing is really going to come easy for this Illini team.
On Facebook, alumnus and fellow frustrated fan Ben Weinberg noted (edited for clarity):
I see a realistic best-case scenario being: 6-4 in remaining conference games with 2 B1G tourney wins. Home: Minnesota, Penn State and Northwestern. Road: Penn State, Nebraska and Rutgers.
Fair enough, although that particular sentiment ended with the conclusion of an NIT appearance.
With Illinois’ current SOS and RPI, I believe 9-9 in the Big Ten and 2 conference tournament wins, for a total of 21 wins, gets them an NCAA bid.
For reference, here’s the remaining schedule, and my predictions are in the far-right column:
Given how Illinois has played at home, I’m legitimately of the opinion that home against Michigan State is more winnable than on the road against Nebraska, but I think those two could be swapped.
Next: 3 Observations From the Iowa Hawkeyes Victory
Either way, there you have it. An extremely optimistic look ahead. The “quest for 7” begins now.