With all the discussion about the 2017 recruiting class we sometimes forget about the talent that will be taking the floor for the Illinois Basketball team next year.
Believe me, I understand how critical recruiting is to the life of a program. It is especially hard to exaggerate the importance of recruiting to the Illini.
And now that the Illini are in contention again for the services of Charlie Moore, who seems very excited about playing alongside fellow point-guard Te’Jon Lucas, things have gotten more interesting for next year.
In my last piece, I wrote about the Illini’s ideal starting line-up next year. Of course, that analysis did not include Moore.
Even with Moore, I think the starting point guard position is Tracy Abrams’ to lose.
Certainly having Abrams, Lucas, and Moore on the court at the same time would be interesting… small but dangerous. They might be better used in rotation, but let’s hope Groce is confronted with the happy dilemma of who to start and in what combinations.
Setting aside the excitement of recruiting, I wanted to explore the Illini’s worst case starting line-up next year.
Illinois Fighting Illini
First of all, though, I don’t think this will actually be the starting line up. In fact, with the exception of Mike Thorne Jr. starting at center, the starting lineup (after suspensions) will likely be what I wrote in that last post.
I am hopeful Thorne will be back, but he seems to have the tougher case. If, however, Thorne, Black, Nunn, Abrams, and Tate are not back next year, I think this is our starting line-up as it stands now.
The point guard position belongs to true Lucas in this scenario. Quite literally, there would be no one else to do this if Abrams doesn’t get a sixth year, or is injured again, and Tate’s criminal matters are not satisfactorily resolved.
This is concerning, but not because Lucas isn’t an excellent prospect. His numbers were impressive for Milwaukee Washington before he broke his leg in February (at a tournament in Champaign, ironically). Before the injury, he averaged 20.5 PPG, 5.3 RPG, and 7.8 APG.
All very impressive numbers for a point guard. The assists are huge considering the importance of dishing from the point guard position.
The issue is that he is a true freshman point guard. There are few recruits in the country that could be entrusted with leading an offense as a true freshman.
And it begs the question of who would take the point when Lucas needs rest. Hill ran the point, but he won’t be spending any time on the bench in my worst case scenario, and hardly any time in my best case scenario.
Aaron Jordan? Alex Austin? Perhaps the Illini will hunt the secondary market for a back-up, ala Khalid Lewis. It is a big question.
I won’t spend much time on Malcolm Hill, as I covered him in my last piece. Shooting guard, small forward, point guard – he’ll be ready. All Illini fans know how absolutely critical it’ll be to get huge minutes from Hill, as in 35 or more, in every game regardless of which lineup takes the floor.
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I recently reviewed the excellent freshman year that Jalen Coleman-Lands had this past season.
JCL is easily the sixth man in the ideal starting line-up, but he could start any game in any scenario, and will get significant minutes coming off the bench if he is the sixth man.
JCL ended the season shooting 41 percent from the field, and 42 percent from the arc. He will be a significant factor either way. Jordan will be a more than capable back-up if JCL ends up starting regularly.
At 6-foot-10, Michael Finke is an exciting stretch four player who starts at forward in this second string scenario.
The thing about Finke is that he would be an excellent starter and like JCL, could end up starting games even under the best case scenario.
Ideally, Finke will come off the bench to relieve Black. But if Finke, a red-shirt sophomore who saw significant playing time last year due to all of the injuries, must start, that will be ok.
Eventually, once he is eligible, Tulane transfer Kipper Nichols, a 6-foot-6 small forward, will be available to spell Finke along with sophomore DJ Williams, who I expect will start to break out early next season.
Maverick Morgan, a 6-foot-10 senior center, gets the starting nod if Thorne Jr. does not get another year of eligibility. He saw significant, unexpected, minutes last season due to Thorne’s (mostly) season-ending meniscus injury.
Morgan also made huge strides at the end of the season playing with confidence and energy down the stretch.
In the first 19 games of the season, Morgan averaged 14 minutes per game, even after Thorne went out in the middle of game seven against Iowa State. Thorne came back in game 19 against Indiana. He didn’t play again after that.
Morgan’s minute’s sky rocketed. He averaged almost 32 minutes per game in the last 12 games of the season before the B1G Tournament. Obviously, the coaching staff realized it was time to live or die with Morgan and the minutes they gave him in the last part of the season allowed him to develop.
Statistically, Morgan was an excellent shooter throughout the season. In the first 19 games, before his minutes shot up, he was shooting at 58%.
With the increase in minutes, Morgan saw a small dip to 54.5%. But he shot 59% in the B1G Tournament. While not a prolific scorer (he averaged 8.3 ppg), when he does shoot he tends to make it. Most importantly, though, his defense seemed to improve in the final stretch as he got more rebounds and was generally more aggressive.
If that trend continues into his senior year, Morgan just might be a special player.
At the end of the day, I suspect this starting line-up scenario is actually the first wave of relief for the true starters. What this shows us is the Illini has some real depth at every position.
Next: Illini Ideal Starting Lineup
But if the Illini don’t get Thorne back, they will be hunting for another big 5th-year transfer student to help Finke and Morgan. So scoring and depth will not necessarily be a problem.
The question is, and it was the same going into the season last year, where will the defense come from?