As conference play continues, and despite the losses, the Illinois basketball team is showing signs of improvement. Will that trend continue tonight and culminate in a major upset victory?
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Illinois heads to the Breslin Center tonight to play a very strong Michigan State team. The Spartans are 14-1 and are ranked 5th in both the AP and the Coaches poll. Sparty’s only loss came at the hands of the surging Iowa Hawkeyes in both teams’ B1G opener.
But the Spartans have been without Denzel Valentine, a senior shooting guard who has emerged as a leading candidate for player of the year. He will be back in a few days, but luckily for Illinois, not in time for tonight’s game.
While I would usually want to see the Illini play a fully healthy opposing team, the fact that Illinois has been so significantly hobbled this season by its own injuries leaves me very pleased that Valentine won’t be on the floor.
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So does that mean Illinois should win this game and that they are the better all around team now? Not by a long shot. Michigan State is not a one man show. They are a better all around team than Illinois.
Illinois does have a history of upsetting Michigan State in the Breslin Center. Illinois won its last two games in East Lansing and they boast the most wins there of all B1G teams in recent history, with five since 2002.
Of course, those are fun and comforting statistics for Illinois fans, but they really don’t mean a thing. I would like to think that the last two wins there means that Groce has figured out Izzo, but somehow I don’t think that is the case. I would buy that idea had Illinois not lost its last two home games to MSU.
We need the core five of Jaylon Tate, Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill, Michael Finke, and Jalen Coleman-Lands to play together the bulk of every game.
So what does Illinois need to do to win this game?
There are two things they are doing very well. They are exceptional at taking care of the basketball, ranking at No. 6 in the country in turnovers. And while not doing good enough, they have continued to improve at the line, shooting 71.5%, ranking No. 112 in the country.
I take away a couple things from those stats.
With respect to turnovers, Jaylon Tate and Khalid Lewis can both take care of the basketball as point guards. Neither are big scoring threats, but they can handle the rock and make good decisions with it, as can the rest of the team. That is remarkable considering that Illinois is a young team. The only senior on the court since November 28th, when Mike Thorne Jr. went down, has been Lewis who shares point guard duties with Tate.
With respect to the free throw line, Illinois needs to get there more times than Michigan State. The sole reason Illinois lost its last game at Ohio State on Sunday was the Illini’s failure to get to the line as often as the Buckeyes. In fact, OSU is a poor free throw shooting team, but they got there so often it made a significant impact in what amounted to a two point win for them.
The Spartans are about the same as Illinois from the line, ranking No. 96. So if Illinios can get there more than Sparty, and avoid the problem that plagued them against OSU, that should obviously help.
Outside of taking care of the ball and getting to the line, Groce needs to get more minutes out of his starting 5, starting tonight.
With Illinois hobbling along, it is more important than ever that they become one of those teams that plays mostly seven or eight guys. We need the core five of Tate, Kendrick Nunn, Malcolm Hill, Michael Finke, and Jalen Coleman-Lands to play together the bulk of every game.
This is a group that has been proving itself on the floor the last few games. The more they play together and the more trust they develop, the better the chemistry will be. Chemistry is the only thing that will right the Illini’s listing ship this season.
Moreover, even if this doesn’t solve this years problems, this might be the same five that will start next year. If Tracy Abrams and Mike Thorne Jr. are denied another year of eligibility, the only change to this line up next year might be adding Leron Black. Therefore these guys getting substantial playing time together the rest of the B1G season should pay off next year too.
I understand the need to substitute Maverick Morgan for Finke on occasion to give him a rest, but the fact is that Morgan is too tentative with the ball on offense and has not been able to find his stride on defense.
I like Aaron Jordan off the bench to give Nunn, Hill, or JCL a break. And of course Lewis can relive Tate. But with Tate’s performance against OSU – no turnovers, five assists, and four points – I think he has earned the title of top dog at the point. More scoring would be nice, but so long as he doesn’t turn it over and distributes, Groce has to be satisfied.
In short, if Illinois can play defense like they did against OSU, shoot just as well, and get to the line frequently, we might just walk out of there with a major upset. And that would obviously be a huge boost at this point in the season.