Illinois Basketball: Three Keys to Success in B1G Play

Starting today, there are three keys to success for the Illinois basketball team as they head into B1G Conference play.

Next: Illinois Basketball: Preview of the Michigan Wolverines

These three keys are rather obvious, but not quite as simple as they sound.

First, the Illini need to improve on their defense.

Second, they need to score big.

Finally, Illinois needs to remain distraction free.

Defense has been the Illini’s biggest weakness to date. And while they are on the path to improvement in this department, the Illini will likely hit a ceiling of being a good, but not great, defensive team. And that might be good enough, but they need to hit that ceiling soon.

Getting more rebounds and defending against the three will be critical to the Illini’s success in the new year.

Currently, according to kenpom.com, Illinois sits at 175th in the nation on defense. Part of the problem there is defending against the three.

Illinois is generally outscored in that category by their competition, who is shooting a combined 37.2% against Illinois. That places Illinois as one of the worst teams in the NCAA at defending against the three.

Illinois’ rebounding needs dramatic improvement as well. However, the absence of Mike Thorne Jr. and Leron Black – both out indefinitely due to knee injuries – is part of the reason Illinois’ defensive ceiling is so low at this point.

None-the-less, the “next-man-up” mentality necessitates that Maverick Morgan and Michael Finke become much more aggressive on the boards.

A relative bright spot for Illinois has been the offense. However, because of the inevitable defensive issues they’ll have, the Illini must also improve here.

It is hard to see how Nunn and Hill will be able to contribute more than they are now. That means Illinois will need big production from freshman Jalen Coleman Lands and Finke, and significant contributions from others off the bench like Morgan and freshman Aaron Jordan.

This is another area where the Illini are hurting with the loss of Thorne and Black. Hopefully they’ll at least have Black return to the line up soon. Of all the shooting weapons on the Illini, Black seemed to show the most offensive promise pre-season.

Finally, a distraction free year will keep the Illini focused, and combined with improved offense and defense, in the hunt for a “third season” of play in March. Of course injuries are a distraction in and of themselves , but they generally aren’t brought about as unforced errors.

(On a related note we learned yesterday that Khalid Lewis will likely be out for today’s game because he has the mumps).

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We all recall the huge distraction created last year when Rayvonte Rice and Aaron Cosby were suspended from the team during January and February. Who knows how different Illinois’ season could have been had that not occurred. After all, it was one win that separated Illinois from playing in the NCAA tournament.

This season Illinois can ill afford even a minor distraction. And in that category I would include the incessant and completely unjustified calls from some fans for Groce to be fired.

Regardless of what happens this year (barrinng some unforeseen scandal) you will not hear me calling for Groce’s head. Illinois would unquestionably be overachieving right now if we had Abrams, Black, and Thorne. And what if Darius Paul hadn’t squandered his second chance? Groce cannot control any of that.

Of course he has to “coach up” the players he has. Can anyone doubt that he has done that with juniors Hill and Nunn being the number one and two top scorers in the B1G as we enter conference play? Those guys didn’t get there without excellent coaching.

Groce has also recruited well, with three excellent four star recruits this year, including JCL who was a border line five star recruit. And his decision to red-shirt Finke last year looks like a prescient move now.

This program needs consistency to get better. Dumping Groce does nothing to help the Illini’s cause in the near future. It will be a distraction to his players if they have to hit the court every game concerned that their coaches tenure is on the line. They don’t need that.

Let’s give Groce a couple more years to develop the program. If that doesn’t happen, I will be happy to admit I was wrong. But I don’t think I’ll need to do that. I think some patience will pay dividends on this front.

At any rate, the improvements on defense and offense will need to start today against Michigan. Both teams take care of the ball very well, sitting in the top ten in that category.

Michigan shoots slightly better from the line at 72% to the Illini’s 70%. The Wolverines are an excellent scoring team, especially from the arc where they shoot a staggering 42%. And unfortunately, one of Illinois’ biggest problems on defense, as pointed out above, has been defending the three.

Illinois needs to make Michigan beat them on the inside.

In addition to defending the arc, the Illini cannot go cold on offense. In fact, they’ll need to shoot a steady 50% for the game, with an uptick in threes, to have a chance.

Don’t get me wrong, Illinois has what it takes to win this game, but they’ll need to come out swinging, and not stop until the final buzzer.

This game should be a microcosm of what Illinois needs to improve on. Later today, we’ll find out if they are on the right path.