The Illinois Basketball team meets the Missouri Tigers in St. Louis tonight for the Braggin’ Rights game, and this one aims to be a high scoring shoot-out.
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The annual basketball match between Illinois and Missouri on a neutral court is always an intense affair, full of drama and emotion.
The Illini have won the last two games, including last year’s thriller where Rayvonte Rice drained a last second three as he fell to the floor and was immediately smothered by his teammates.
Overall, the Illini have dominated the series, winning 29 times to Missouri’s 16. The 46th meeting should a good one.
The Illini’s woes have been well documented in these pages, and others. Multiple injuries and a weak defense top the negative chart.
And in many respects the Illini and the Tigers resemble each other. Neither has very much height and neither plays very good D. And taken together, neither team is having a very good year, though Missouri appears to be more down than Illinois.
The Tigers are 5-5, with all of their losses coming at the hands of teams in the RPI top 75. However, despite the fact that none of those could be considered a “bad loss”, the Tigers were blown out in four of those games, scoring a season low 42 points against Kansas State.
Missouri only scored more than 60 in two of those five games. On the other hand, the Tigers have largely decimated lesser opponents – something the Illini have completely failed to do. Missouri has averaged 81 points in each of their five wins, with a season high 88 against Arkansas State.
Illinois enters the Braggin’ Rights game at 7-5. Like the Tigers, the Illini’s loses are against top tier teams (and I include North Florida and Chattanooga in that category). The difference is that Illinois has not been blown out of any of those games, even though they let a couple get away from them at the end.
Also, like Missouri, Illinois has no bad losses. But unlike the Tigers, the Illini cannot put a lesser team away. Their last win against South Dakota showcased that problem.
While its true that the Illini never trailed, South Dakota was able to shoot itself back into the game in the second half and hang around close enough to keep the Illini, and their fans, very uncomfortable.
That being said, Illinois has averaged 80 points in seven wins, with a season high 91 points in that South Dakota victory. Those are very similar numbers to Missouri.
All of this tells me that this is going to be a high scoring game, with mediocre defense on both sides. So who does that kind of contest favor?
Generally, I would say it favors Illinois. The Illini have been more consistent in putting points on the board. Overall, in 12 games so far, the Illini have averaged 77 points. Missouri has averaged only 70 in its 10 games.
Of course there are many variables there, including the defensive skills of the opposing teams. The Tigers have losses to Arizona and Xavier, two of the very best defensive teams in the country.
But Illinois has better shooters.
Malcolm Hill and Kendrick Nunn are having the kind of break out years one expects from highly touted four-star recruits entering their junior seasons. Groce has done a great job “coaching up” these two as they have steadily progressed in their Illini careers, and have increasingly shown the willingness to carry this team through its injury plagued season. (One can only imagine the glory we’d be experiencing right now if Abrams, Thorne, and Black were all healthy and playing all season).
Hill, the current co-B1G player of the week, is coming off a ridiculously good game against South Dakota where he scored 34 points, grabbed 11 rebounds and had five assists.
For the season Hill is shooting 35% from 3, but 51% from everywhere else. He is 83% from the charity stripe all well.
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Nunn is also having an outstanding season. He is shooting lights out at 44% from the arc, and is also shooting an amazing 51% from within the three point line. He is 79% at the free throw line as well.
It should be noted that the Illini are getting significant offensive contributions from others as well, including red-shirt freshman Michael Finke and true freshman Jalen Coleman-Lands.
Finke is shooting 42% from the three, and a stupid 66% from the rest of the floor. JCL, a three point specialist, is also shooting 42% from beyond the arc.
Illinois also takes care of the ball better than Missouri does. In fact, the Illini guard the rock better than most teams in the country, ranking 11th nationally in turnover percentage. Comparatively, the Tigers are okay with the ball, sitting at 109th. The Illini are also slightly better at the line, shooting 71% to the Tigers’ 68%. Of course who is at the line also matters.
To win, the Illini will need big offense from Nunn, Hill, Finke and JCL. They’ll need to take care of the ball and get to the line. Neither team will play great D (though Illinois has shown that it can). This game will be won or lost down the stretch. The Illini have the better team to close out a game like that, but will they show up?
This is going to be a close game, and because of its neutral court setting and the intensity of the rivalry, all bets are off. It is a cliché, but it is also true; whoever wants this game the most will win it. Whoever plays with the most passion will leave it all on the court, exiting with just one thing – a victory.