In my last post, I reviewed what appears to be a surprisingly tough first half of the Illinois basketball non-conference schedule. From their first game against North Florida, to Providence, Chattanooga, and UAB, the Illini face some real challenges.
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These games have been made even more challenging by the absence of Kendrick Nunn, who will likely miss the first six weeks of non-conference play. Luckily, he’ll probably be back for the second half of the non-conference schedule, which will arguably be as challenging as the first half.
The Emerald Coast Classic sees the Illini playing a very good UAB team, and either Virginia Tech or Iowa State in the final round. The easier draw is the Hokies, but that would likely mean the Illini are in the consolation round. So let’s be optimistic, shall we?
Leron Black should be back by this time, and that will be essential to any chance the Illini have against a dominant pre-season top 10 team in Iowa State. Even with a new head coach (Fred Hoiberg bolted for the NBA to coach the Bulls) the Cyclones are predicted to finish second in the Big 12 to perennial No. 1 Kansas – slated to finish in the top five or six teams nationally.
Iowa State features two pre-season all-conference first team players in Monte Morris and Georges Niang. However, Iowa State might be the more athletic and senior team, but the Illini match up well on height, and just like when they beat Baylor last year, if the Illini are popping on all cylinders they can upset this team too. If the Illini pull off a victory against UAB and Iowa State to win the Emerald Coast Classic – and have no “bad” loses to date – the non-c0nfernce schedule will be a success no matter what happens next.
And next is perhaps the most exciting game of the non-conference schedule. On December 2nd Illinois hosts Notre Dame for the Illini’s first true home game at the newly renovated State Farm Center.
Regardless of how well the Illini have been playing up to that point – and I predict they’ll have played well and will be 6 and 1 – the SFC will be rocking! The new arena features 3/4 student coverage around the perimeter of the court, upping the intensity level and possibly showcasing the new facility as one of great intimidation to opponents; which will be significant in B1G play.
ND will bring B1G quality competition. It will be sans Jerian Grant and Pat Connaughton, but is still be a top 40 preseason team. Demetrius Jackson replaces Grant, and I don’t think they’ll miss a beat there. Moreover, 6’10 center Zach Auguste will give Mike Thorne Jr. a true challenge in the middle – maybe his first challenge of the year. Most guys on this Domer team are 6’5 or taller, so size will present a problem.
Additionally they are coached by Mike Brey, who I think is one of the best coaches in college basketball. However, the Illini should be finding its defensive moxie about this time. Combined with home court advantage and the energy of a re-made SFC, the Illini should be able to scratch out a very tough win at home.
Illinois’ next challenge comes on December 9 at home against the Yale Bulldogs.
In a league that used to only boast the chant “that’s alright, that’s ok, you’ll work for us someday,” the Ivy League has emerged as a bit of a basketball threat. It is well known that Harvard is on the ascendancy. But bear in mind that just last year Yale challenged Harvard in the Ivy League Championship, and is predicted finish first in the league this year.
Yale features Justin Sears, a 6’8 senior forward who is preseason player of the year and a likely NBA draft pick. The Bulldogs bring a seasoned roster to bear in this game. But, if the Illini isolate Sears, they should shut Yale down. If the Illini take the Dogs for granted, however, this could be a disappointing home loss.
Another very disappointing loss would be against a depleted and demoralized Missouri team.
On December 23rd, the Illini play the Tigers in the annual Braggin’ Rights game in St. Louis, Missouri. I put this game on the non-conference watch list only because it is almost always a tough neutral court game full of excitement and drama (see last years buzzer beating victory shot by Rayvonte Rice as a prime example).
The Tigers are slated to finish dead last in the SEC, so Illinois – fully healthy by this time – should exit St. Louis with another victory in this long-running rivalry. But they cannot take this game for granted or the Tigers will steal one, ending the Illini’s non-conference schedule on a very stale note.
Best case scenario, Illinois will finish the non-conference schedule 11-2. Worst case, 9-4. (I am an optimist).
With 18 games in conference play, Illinois will need to go .500 in my best case scenario, and about .700 in my worst case scenario, to secure a bid to the NCAA Tournament. No bad losses in non-conference play requires the Illini to beat some very pesky and talented teams form smaller conferences. If they do that, and steal a win or two from the power conferences, they have set the table nicely for a good B1G season.
Otherwise the Illini will enter the 2016 season with a weak recruiting class, incessant calls for Groce’s head, and a mandate to make the tournament or start over…again. As I have said before, this is Groce’s best opportunity to show what kind of coach he is. I think he is an excellent coach, and I hope he proves me right. His first hurdle will be game one on November 13th against North Florida.