With the NCAA tournament just about a week and a half away, it is time to project where the Illinois basketball team might end up getting seeded.
At one point just a couple of weeks ago, I thought the Illini had a chance to work our way out of the NCAA tournament altogether. We hit a rough patch of mass proportions that saw our record plummet to 17-11 overall and 9-8 in the Big Ten.
A part of this winning drought was a stretch where Illinois went 5-8, which included four losses by double-digit points and three of those losses were by at least 20 points. It was an ugly scene.
Thankfully, the Illini righted the ship. We got back on course and finished the regular season with three straight wins, two over ranked opponents.
The Big Ten Tournament starts this week, and the Illini are seeded No. 7. We get the single-bye, but I want to look at how high Illinois can climb in the seeding or how low we can drop based on our Big Ten Tournament results.
Here is the projected best, worst, and most likely Illinois basketball NCAA tournament seed
Illinois basketball NCAA tournament – Worst seed
Most of the games that actually matter for the NCAA tournament seeding have been completed, and Joe Lunardi of ESPN has released his projected bracket as of Sunday night.
Illinois is currently in the No. 6 spot taking on the winner of the No. 11 play-in game between San Diego State and Xavier. Honestly, that game would scare me to death.
But, as we sit here today, a No. 6 seed is what we are looking at, but there are more games to be played. Let’s take a look at the worst case scenario and where Illinois would be seeded if that happened.
On Wednesday, No. 10 Ohio State takes on No. 15 Iowa. The Buckeyes throttled Iowa in the regular season, 82-65. I could see that same fate happening again, as Ohio State is a solid program.
Ohio State only played Illinois once this season, and it was in Champaign. The Buckeyes gave us a scare, as they were up by six points at halftime and by double-digit points in the second half. Thankfully, Illinois came back and won, but Ohio State had us on the ropes.
That could easily happen again. Teams that have had success against Brad Underwood usually continue to at least compete with us. In the worst-case scenario, the Buckeyes come out on Thursday still hot from the day before. They take Illinois down in the second round.
Honestly, I don’t see the Illini dropping too much if that happens. We are currently No. 15 in the NET Rankings, and all of the No. 8 and No. 9 seeds in ESPN’s projection, excluding Gonzaga, are sub-30 in the NET Rankings.
Even if Illinois goes into the Big Ten Tournament and lays an egg in the second round, our first game, I still think the worst seed we earn in the NCAA tournament is the No. 7 seed.
Illinois basketball NCAA tournament – Best seed
Okay, now we have the worst-case scenario out of the way. That isn’t a terrible floor all things considered. But let’s have a little fun. Now we can take a look at a Cinderella run.
Like I mentioned in the first slide, Illinois is currently projected as a No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. There is a chance we can really shake things up with some big wins over top teams.
No. 10 Ohio State takes on No. 15 Iowa on Wednesday. The winner then takes on Illinois in the second round. We beat both of these teams in the regular season, so there is no reason to think we can’t do it again.
Illinois then advances on to the third round to take on the No. 2 overall seed, Maryland. The Terrapins beat us by double-digit points the first time around. The one massive caveat to that loss for the Illini is that our starting center, Tomislav Ivisic, was out. He didn’t play, and Maryland’s big men had huge games.
Ivisic will be back this time around, and Morez Johnson Jr. could be participating too, after he has missed the past few games with a broken wrist. Illinois might be at full strength for the first time in a long time, and this could mean an upset of No. 2.
After that triumphant win over Maryland, Illinois’ likely next opponent is either No. 3 Michigan or No. 6 Purdue. I think the Boilermakers will be the team waiting for the Illini, but here is the thing. Illinois beat both Purdue and Michigan in the last two games of the season. If we did it once, we can do it again. This win advances the Illini to the championship game of the Big Ten Tournament.
My guess is that Michigan State is the team that is going to be in the title game. Illinois had the Spartans on the ropes in East Lansing the first time around and only lost by two points. In the second matchup, we had the lead at halftime by four points but let the game slip away.
Illinois has played the Spartans well despite being 0-2 against them this season. It is also hard to beat a team three times in a single season. The Illini come away with Brad Underwood’s third Big Ten Tournament title.
The path I just described would get Illinois some quality wins. Maryland is No. 10 in the NET Rankings. Purdue and Michigan are No. 14 and No. 27 in the NET Rankings, respectively. The Spartans are No. 11 in the NET Rankings. That would be three big wins to boost up our NCAA tournament seeding.
Looking at ESPN’s projection right now, I think if Illinois wins the Big Ten Tournament, there is a chance we can climb as high as the No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Lunardi has Kentucky, Texas A&M, Iowa State, and St. John’s on the No. 3 line right now. Kentucky is 21-10 overall and No. 12 in the NET Rankings. Texas A&M is 22-9 overall and No. 16 in the NET Rankings. Iowa State is 23-8 and No. 9 in the NET Rankings. St. John’s is 27-4 and No. 17 in the NET Rankings.
If things shake out right, and Illinois wins the Big Ten Tournament, I could realistically see a No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. That would be incredible for the Orange and Blue.
Illinois basketball NCAA tournament – Most likely seed
Well, now that we have the best- and worst-case scenarios laid out, I feel more optimistic than ever before. The bottom isn’t too low, and the ceiling is pretty high.
Even though I want the best-case scenario to happen, I am also trying to be realistic. It is going to be a tough road to the Big Ten Tournament crown. So, let’s take a look at what is most likely going to happen.
Illinois’ first matchup will be in the second round against either No. 10 Ohio State or No. 15 Iowa. Ohio State is probably going to win that game, so the Illini likely have the Buckeyes on Thursday.
Ohio State plays Illinois tough, but we haven’t lost to the Buckeyes in two seasons. The last time Ohio State clipped us was in 2023. I think Illinois wins the fourth game in a row, but this contest is not a blowout by any means.
Here is what I truly believe. If Illinois can get past No. 2 Maryland in the third round, we are going to get to the Big Ten Tournament title game. Sadly, the Terrapins just have Illinois’ number.
Maryland beat the Illini by double-digit points in the lone game this season. Even though we didn’t have Tomislav Ivisic, the Terrapins just looked like a team that could compete for a national championship. They have the team that can make a big-time run in the NCAA tournament.
The Terrapins have Brad Underwood’s number too. They have won four out of the last five matchups and seven out of the last nine against Illinois. For some reason, the Illini can’t figure Maryland out. And now we will likely play them when they are at their best.
I could see Illinois fighting and competing in this game, but Maryland might be too much. The Terrapins clip us and send us home for the weekend waiting for Selection Sunday.
To me, that is the most likely scenario. Again, I think Illinois can win the Big Ten Tournament, but I also want to be realistic. So, if Illinois wins in the second round but falls in the third round, where do we end up being seeded?
That doesn’t really do a lot for the Illini. Lunardi has us as the No. 6 seed right now. I could actually see Illinois moving up to the No. 5 seed depending on how other teams play in their conference tournaments. But Illinois should finish somewhere around No. 15 in the NET Rankings, which could very possibly get us a No. 5 seed. That No. 5 vs. No. 12 matchup is always a nervous one. At the end of the day, I think the most likely scenario has Illinois landing at the No. 5 seed in the NCAA tournament. Let the madness begin.