The Illinois basketball team had a golden opportunity on Tuesday night to rise sharply up the projected NCAA tournament seeding.
With a win over Purdue, the Illini would have notched a victory over a top-five team in the NET Rankings, and we would have been on a path to an even better seed in the NCAA tournament.
Illinois didn’t manage to hold on, though. Purdue came storming back and took the game in Champaign, 77-71. This was a painful loss because of the implications it had on the Big Ten regular season crown and the potential for a better spot in the Big Dance.
I am now trying to figure out the floor and ceiling for Illinois the rest of the way out.
Best, worst, and most likely NCAA tournament seeds for the Illinois basketball team
Worst seed
Let’s take a look at the worst possible seed first. As of right now, I believe Illinois is probably still comfortably in as the No. 4 seed. That is where the selection committee had us in mid-February, and there is no reason to think otherwise.
Illinois has a NET Ranking of No. 15 in the country, and our 5-6 record against Quad 1 teams keeps us in that spot for now. A bad stretch of games would change everything, though.
On Sunday, the Illini round out the 2023-24 season on the road against Iowa. This is a Quad 1 game since it is a top-75 team on the road. If Illinois drops this game, that gives us a 5-7 Quad 1 record and another tally in the loss column.
Illinois then enters the Big Ten Tournament as the No. 2 seed. Minnesota and Michigan State are vying for the No. 7 seed, and Penn State and Ohio State are currently fighting for the No. 10 seed. A loss to Michigan State gives Illinois another Quad 1 loss, but if we fall to any of the other three teams, that would be even worse.
So, let’s say the Illini drop the game against Iowa and then fall in the Big Ten Tournament in the first game next Friday. Where does that put us?
I realistically see Illinois falling a good amount. If this horrible scenario happens, it wouldn’t shock me to see the Illini get the No. 6 seed in the NCAA tournament. Falling further than that probably won’t happen based on a solid overall record and a decent record against Quad 1 teams. I believe the No. 6 seed is the lowest Illinois could probably drop.
Best seed
Life would have been way more fun if Illinois beat Purdue on Tuesday night. We would have been talking about how high the Illini could get seeded in the NCAA tournament.
Instead, I am thinking about the best possible seed. With the loss against the Boilermakers, Illinois is still in the No. 4 slot right now. I don’t think that changes after falling to the No. 3 team in the country.
Illinois then has Iowa on the road to finish out the season. As mentioned, the Hawkeyes are No. 57 in the NET Rankings, so this is a Quad 1 game. If Illinois can take down Iowa, that would bump our Quad 1 record to 6-6.
The first Big Ten Tournament game Illinois plays will be on Friday next week. There are a handful of teams that could be our eventual opponent, but the best-case scenario if we want to move up is to have Michigan State secure the No. 7 seed and win on Thursday.
Michigan State is No. 22 in the NET Rankings, so if Illinois can match up against the Spartans and beat them on Friday, that moves our Quad 1 record to 7-6.
Illinois then advances to the Final 4 of the Big Ten Tournament to face Northwestern. This doesn’t do much for the Illini NCAA tournament seeding, as the Wildcats are No. 52 in the NET Rankings. Obviously, a win looks great, so get this victory and advance to the Big Ten Championship game.
This is where things get sticky. Illinois could face Purdue again for one last matchup. The Boilermakers have our number, but they are the No. 2 team in the NET Rankings. Taking down Purdue would be huge, and it would get Illinois’ Quad 1 record to 8-6.
If this scenario happens and Illinois wins four games in a row leading into the NCAA tournament, I think we could make a jump in the seeding. An 8-6 Quad 1 record would be huge. You pair that with a Big Ten Tournament crown, and I could see Illinois still sneaking into the No. 2 seed. We need help from some of the teams ahead of us, but in my opinion, there is a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Most likely seed
I went over the worst seed I believe Illinois can have entering the NCAA tournament. The bottom of the barrel for the program is probably the No. 6 seed.
If Illinois gets hot here in the final couple of weeks, I believe there is a chance we climb high, though. If things fall into place, the Illini could end up sneaking into the No. 2 seed as well.
But what is the most likely scenario? No. 6 seed seems too harsh, and the No. 2 seed is a bit of a pipe dream. So, where will the Illini likely land when Selection Sunday happens?
Illinois was able to take care of business against Iowa just weeks ago in Champaign. This is a great matchup for the Orange and Blue, and I see us beating the Hawkeyes again. This gives Illinois another win in Quad 1.
Entering the Big Ten Tournament, I believe Illinois has some favorable matchups. The only team out of the possible No. 7 vs No. 10 that I don’t want to see is Michigan State. But we have dropped games against Michigan State, Northwestern, and Penn State, and all three teams are possible opponents.
I fully expect Illinois to play with some fire in the Big Ten Tournament. This is the last chance for Terrence Shannon Jr. and the older players to go out on top. Winning on Friday is something I could see happening. Illinois would then play Northwestern on Saturday. Taking down the Wildcats wouldn’t shock me either.
Illinois then matches up against Purdue. The Boilermakers have our number, and while I will be hoping that we beat Purdue this time around, Zach Edey seems like too much. The Illini might lose in the Big Ten Championship game.
So, that likely gives Illinois an overall record of 25-9, a Quad 1 record of 7-7, and a trip to the Big Ten Championship game. I think the most likely scenario is that Illinois secures the No. 4 seed in the NCAA tournament with discussions of a No. 3 seed.