Illinois football is finally back in action, and there is a chance to put up another win on Saturday.
It has been a minute since the Illini have won a game. Saturday marks nearly a month since the victory over Michigan, but it is time to get back on track.
A two-game skid is not huge, but making that a three-game losing streak would send up some red flags. Beating Michigan State on Saturday is extremely important for the current state of the program and for the future. Let’s get to seven wins and beyond this season. Taking down the Spartans is step one.
Here are three key ways the Illinois football team can beat Michigan State
1. Expose the quarterback situation
While the Illinois football team has dropped two in a row, there is an opportunity to get the best of the Michigan State offense on Saturday.
The Illini defense hasn’t played well up front lately, but the secondary seems to be still chugging along. So, against the Spartans, I think this is a perfect opportunity to take advantage of a team that has a quarterback room that struggles.
Aidan Chiles had some injury issues against Indiana, but reports are he will be back for the Illinois game. He has thrown for 1,850 yards and eight touchdowns this season. The bad thing for the Spartans is the fact Chiles has also thrown 11 interceptions.
With Chiles being a turnover machine, Illinois’ defensive backs should be able to feast on Saturday. The Illini have an interception in two out of the last three games and in six out of nine contests this season.
Illinois’ secondary is going to have the most weight put on them too. Chiles is at his best when throwing downfield 20 or more yards. He has four touchdowns and three interceptions this season. What I am going to be curious about is how Aaron Henry disguises the blitz and when he drops players back in coverage.
Chiles struggles greatly with passes shorter than 20 yards. For the season, he has three touchdowns and eight interceptions in this area. If I had to guess, there will be some game-changing plays made through the air by the Illinois defense on Saturday.
2. Give Luke Altmyer some time in the pocket
Illinois is a throwing football team that likes to sprinkle in the run game. Luke Altmyer has done a good job moving the ball down the field, and there is a great opportunity for him to have a big game on Saturday.
One of the biggest glaring issues for the Illini this season has been protecting Altmyer. He has been great when he has time, but the Illinois offensive line is giving up 3.4 sacks per game, which ranks No. 119 out of 134 teams in the FBS.
You can’t just become a better offensive line overnight. We kind of know that this type of offensive line play is what Illinois is going to get in every game. But there is definitely some hope that the offensive line will protect Altmyer and give him more time against the Spartans on Saturday.
Michigan State isn’t a force up front. The Spartans are the polar opposite on the other side of the ball, as they average just 1.5 sacks per game, which ranks No. 101 in the country.
Altmyer is a substantially better quarterback when he isn’t under pressure too. He completes 68.1% of his passes when the offensive line blocks, but that only happens 62.6% of the time. Altmyer is under pressure 37.4% of each game.
Saturday is a chance for the Illinois offensive line to have a good game due to Michigan State not having a big-time pass rush. Protect Altmyer and the result should be great for the program.
3. Unleash Gabe Jacas in the Michigan State backfield
Illinois has some talented players on the defensive side of the ball. You can look at all levels and point to someone who is going to play on Sundays.
When the dust settles, I believe Gabe Jacas is the most sure-fire NFL talent, though. He is a menace on defense, and his numbers bear out this season. He has 52 tackles, 6.5 sacks, and three forced fumbles through nine games.
Michigan State is not good at protecting quarterback Aidan Chiles. They are giving up 3.1 sacks per game, which ranks No. 116 in the country. That number alone makes me think Illinois’ defense, particularly Jacas, could have a big game.
Moreover, Jacas feasts on the pass rush. While his run defense numbers are down, Jacas has a 77.8 grade by Pro Football Focus when it comes to the pass rush. That is good enough to rank No. 88 out of 850 edge rushers in all levels of college football.
Jacas brings great speed and strength to the table in his pass rush. It is hard for the bigger offensive tackles who can’t move as well to slow him down coming around the line. Jacas’ ability to put pressure on Chilies is going to be huge. I fully expect at least two sacks and numerous quarterback hurries on Saturday.