I am honestly more nervous about the Illinois football game against Purdue than I was against Penn State.
The Illini weren’t expected to beat the Nittany Lions. We were playing with house money. But against Purdue, Illinois is a huge betting favorite. That scares me.
When you look up the term “let down game” this game pops up. Illinois is the better team, and Purdue has looked awful this season. But none of that matters. It is the Big Ten and Illinois better be ready for some big-boy football.
There are some areas where I think the Illini can attack the Boilermakers. I think Illinois can overwhelm Purdue, but these three areas are the primary focus for me.
Here are the three big areas the Illinois football team can attack Purdue
1. Purdue’s bad run defense
Illinois has been more of a passing team this season. We are sub-100 in rushing offense, but our passing offense has outpaced the running attack, which was expected.
On Saturday, the Illini have a chance to get right when it comes to the run game. The program has only seen a 100-yard rusher once this season, and it was against Eastern Illinois. Against Purdue, I think we can make it our second 100-yard rusher.
It is not like Illinois can’t run the ball. That just isn’t our primary focus right now. In fact, Illinois running backs are seeing success on the ground.
Kaden Feagin leads the Illini in rushing this season, and he is averaging 4.6 yards per carry. Aidan Laughery, despite being a bit beat up, has averaged 6.3 yards per carry. Even our freshman running back Ca’Lil Valentine has put up an impressive 5.3 yards per carry.
The ability to run the ball is there for the Orange and Blue, but we have been more of a passing team in 2024. I don’t expect that to be the case against Purdue, though.
If you want to see a running attack, I fully expect the Illini to bludgeon Purdue with a rotation of three or four running backs during the game. The Boilermakers have one of the worst rush defenses in the country, and Illinois should expose that issue.
For the season, Purdue is giving up 273.0 yards per game on the ground. That is bad enough to rank No. 131 out of 134 teams in the FBS. Teams are opening up holes and are able to run semis through them during games.
At the end of the day, I think there is a chance Illinois has multiple 100-yard rushers. We have the horses to pound the rock, and Purdue’s biggest weakness is the run defense. This could be fun.
2. Illinois can dominate the penalty battle
As a coach, there is only so much you can control on the football field. Sometimes a ball doesn’t bounce your way, or the other team is far better than you and you just hope to keep the game respectable.
One thing a coaching staff can control is discipline. Penalties are a huge way to see if a team is listening to the coach and buying in.
Illinois is doing an impressive job with discipline. This program went from averaging 62.3 yards per game in penalties just two seasons ago to now only averaging 45.3 yards per game in penalties. That is a massive jump, as the Illini rank No. 39 in the country when it comes to penalty yards.
On the other side of the field, things aren’t going to plan. Former Illini defensive coordinator Ryan Walters doesn’t seem to be getting the buy-in that I once thought he was going to have. His team is struggling greatly, and the discipline on the field isn’t there.
For the season, Purdue is averaging a whopping 78.3 penalty yards per game. That is down there with the bottom of the FBS, as the Boilermakers rank No. 123 in the country in penalty yardage.
So, I think Illinois can really attack this area against Purdue. Not only should the Illini win the penalty yardage battle, but I want to see the Boilermakers with double the penalty yardage on Saturday. If the Illini can win this battle, we should be able to win the game.
3. Get the Boilermakers off the field early
It isn’t a secret that Purdue has a below-average team this season. The Boilermakers are not only struggling on the field, but they have already fired their offensive coordinator.
Purdue has been one of the worst teams in college football. Their offense has really struggled, as they are sub-100 in both run and pass offense in 2024.
With the Boilermakers not being able to move the ball very well, this has translated into short drives. This season, Purdue has failed to convert third downs at a high rate. I think Illinois can really expose these shortcomings on Saturday.
For the season, Purdue is only converting 23.40% of third downs. That is an insanely bad number. That means they convert just less than one third down for every four attempts. I don’t know if I have ever seen that low of a number from a Big Ten program. They rank No. 130 out of 134 programs in the FBS.
Let’s give Illinois fans a reference point. In 2017, the Illini averaged 15.4 points per game, which was awful. Those teams couldn’t move the football. That season, Illinois was still able to convert third downs at a clip of 33.53%.
Purdue is a bad team in 2024, but let’s not sleep on them. Illinois can’t look ahead at future opponents. With that being said, these three areas are where I think we can make the most ground on Saturday.