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Illinois Football: 3 key numbers for the Illini to beat Penn State

By Rees Woodcock

STATE COLLEGE, PA - OCTOBER 23: Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts to a play against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the first half at Beaver Stadium on October 23, 2021 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images)
STATE COLLEGE, PA - OCTOBER 23: Head coach Bret Bielema of the Illinois Fighting Illini reacts to a play against the Penn State Nittany Lions during the first half at Beaver Stadium on October 23, 2021 in State College, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Scott Taetsch/Getty Images) /
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Sep 8, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) drops back to pass against Kansas Jayhawks defensive lineman Austin Booker (9) during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports
Sep 8, 2023; Lawrence, Kansas, USA; Illinois Fighting Illini quarterback Luke Altmyer (9) drops back to pass against Kansas Jayhawks defensive lineman Austin Booker (9) during the first half at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports /

2. 1.5 turnovers per game

To beat a really good team that is ranked No. 7 in the country, you have to have a few things go your way. One of those things that can change a game is turnovers.

Illinois actually has a turnover margin of 0.0 this season, but that doesn’t mean we have turned the ball over zero times. It just means we counterbalance our turnovers with takeaways. On Saturday, we can’t afford to turn the ball over.

A key stat to snagging a win over Penn State is for Illinois to not have the 1.5 turnovers per game we are averaging this season. That is a number that needs to be lower. In fact, I think it needs to be at zero to have a legit shot at winning the game.

In the loss against Kansas, turnovers thwarted any momentum the Illini were trying to build. We were down 31-7, but the defense was starting to play well. After we recovered a fumble, an Illini wide receiver bobbled the ball and it was intercepted.

The defense managed to hold Kansas to six points in the second half. This enabled Illinois to get within 11 points. On what ended up being the final drive for the Illini, again an Illinois wide receiver bobbled the ball and it was intercepted.

These two turnovers erased any hope for a victory. We can’t afford to have one turnover, let alone two, against Penn State. If we can keep the turnovers at zero, then Illinois has a chance to shock the world.

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