The 2023 Illinois football season is right around the corner, and it is time to start predicting where we will finish.
Coming off an 8-4 campaign in 2022, the Illini fanbase is hungry for more. We haven’t had a consistent winner in a long time, and the 2022 campaign could be the start of something special.
Looking at 2023, Illinois draws a favorable schedule. We don’t have to play Ohio State or Michigan, which is a rarity. Let’s take advantage of this opportunity.
Here is the game-by-game prediction of the 2023 Illinois football season
Week 1 – Illinois vs. Toledo
Illinois takes on the Toledo Rockets in week one of the season. This game will take place on Saturday, September 2 at 6:30 p.m. CT.
Toledo returns a lot of talent from its 9-5 campaign last year. Dequan Finn is back under center after he threw for 2,260 yards, 23 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions. Leading rusher Jacquez Stuart is also back after rushing for 770 yards and four touchdowns. And leading wide receiver Jerjuan Newton returns to the Rockets after having 53 receptions for 830 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022.
In 2022, Toledo had a solid offense, putting up 30.8 points per game. But they didn’t excel in any one aspect. The Rockets ranked No. 70 in the country in pass offense and No. 49 in rush offense.
On the defensive side of the ball, Toledo gave up 27 points per game, which ranked No. 61 in the country in 2022. This was a little skewed by the 77 points they gave up against Ohio State, but the Rockets’ defense wasn’t great.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Toledo, 45-10
The strength of the Toledo offense is running the ball. I believe Illinois has one of the best front sixes in the nation. I think we destroy the Rockets’ ground game.
While Toledo had a solid pass defense in 2022, their rush defense only ranked No. 60 in the country. Look for this to be a coming-out party for Reggie Love III.
Week 2 – Illinois at Kansas
The second game of the season is on the road against a rising Kansas Jayhawks program. This game will take place at 6:30 p.m. CT on Friday, September 8.
It had been a long time since Kansas has been competitive, but they managed to finish 6-6 in 2022 and made a bowl game. This was a strong season, and it had a lot to do with a decent offense, most of which is returning.
Kansas returns its top two quarterbacks who took turns flinging the ball last season. Jalon Daniels seemed to gain control of the starting job, finishing with 2,014 yards, 18 touchdowns, and four interceptions. The Jayhawks also return starting running back Devin Neal, who had 1,090 yards and nine touchdowns in 2022. Daniels will also have familiar targets, as the top 12 players in receiving yards all return to the Kansas offense in 2023.
The Jayhawks didn’t have a good defense last season, though. This is what killed them. The top three players who led in tackles, two out of the four leaders in sacks, and six out of the seven players who had an interception last season will return for Kansas on defense.
This might not matter much, though. Kansas ranked No. 127 points per game allowed, No. 125 in rushing yards allowed per game, and No. 117 in passing yards allowed per game. This is a bad defense that is returning bad players.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Kansas, 55-38
I think this game could end up being a shootout. It will be the first true test for a new-look Illinois secondary. Taz Nicholson and Co. will have their hands full.
Illinois’ offense should be able to push ahead, though. We have enough weapons where we could easily put up a 50-spot against Kansas. I think the Illini come away with a narrow win, but a win nonetheless.
Week 3 – Illinois vs Penn State
The Nittany Lions come to town in week three, and this is going to be the first non-night game for the Illini. Penn State will head to Champaign on Saturday, September 16 at 11:00 a.m. CT.
Penn State had a spectacular year in 2022, with its only two losses coming to top-five programs, Michigan and Ohio State. The main reason for the success was due to a great defense.
Most of the defensive talent returns for the Nittany Lions as well. Three out of the top four players in tackles, sacks, and interceptions are all back in Happy Valley. They are missing a huge piece in Ji’Ayir Brown, who is now in the NFL. He led the team in tackles and interceptions and was second in sacks as a safety.
The weakness for Penn State this season is likely to be the offense. While they did rank inside the top 50 in passing and rushing yards per game last season, and No. 15 in points per game, the Nittany Lions will not have its starting quarterback.
Sean Clifford has moved on and the starting job looks to be Drew Allar’s heading into the season. He threw for 344 yards and four touchdowns last season. Penn State is also missing its top two wide receivers and top tight end from the 2022 campaign.
I think the Nittany Lions will end up leaning on the running game this season. Both Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen are back, and they combined for 1,928 yards and 22 touchdowns in 2022.
- Prediction – Illinois falls to Penn State, 17-13
Penn State’s defense is going to be a monster once again. This is what scares me the most. Illinois will hopefully have gelled by then, and Luke Altmyer is comfortable at quarterback.
Illinois’ best attribute is the front six, so it will be fun to watch those guys against Penn State’s rushing attack. At the end of the day, I think this could be a pretty low-scoring game. It will likely come down the wire, but this might be the first loss of the season for Illinois. It isn’t a great matchup.
Week 4 – Illinois vs Florida Atlantic
Coming off a tough loss to Penn State, Illinois would need a game like Florida Atlantic. The Owls head to Champaign to take on the Illini on Saturday, September 23 with the game time to be determined.
Florida Atlantic could struggle this season. Its offense was sub-50 in points, passing yards, and rushing yards in 2022. They enter 2023 without the bright spot from last season, quarterback N’Kosi Perry. He graduated after throwing for 2,712 yards, 25 touchdowns, and five interceptions.
Not a single player on the Owls’ roster threw a pass for the program last season. But they do have three out of the top four players in receiving yards returning. The top two running backs from 2022, Larry McCammon and Zuberi Mobley, both return this season. They rushed for a combined 1,538 yards and 10 touchdowns in 2023.
The thing that was troubling for the 5-7 Owls in 2022 was its defense. While they return the top four players in tackles and sacks, and three out of the top four players in interceptions, Florida Atlantic was bad on defense with these players last season.
Florida Atlantic would allow 28.2 points per game, which ranked No. 71 in the country. They also gave up 249.7 yards per game through the air and 191.5 yards per game on the ground, which ranked No. 93 and No. 106 in the country, respectively.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Florida Atlantic, 48-10
This is a great get-right game. Illinois has a chance to blow the doors off Florida Atlantic. I don’t think this game will be much of a competition.
I see the Illini coming in and running all over the Owls. Reggie Love III should have over 100 yards, and this could be the first time we see freshman Kaden Feagin in the backfield in garbage time.
Week 5 – Illinois at Purdue
We don’t have to wait too long for this heated-up rivalry to take place. Illinois heads down to West Lafayette to take on Purdue on Saturday, September 30 at either 2:30/3:00 p.m. CT or 6:30 p.m. CT.
Purdue barely nipped Illinois in 2022, but this is a different Boilermakers bunch in 2023. With so much changing with the Purdue program, you really have to throw the prior year’s stats out the window.
The Boilermakers’ offense lost its starting quarterback, but they are replacing him with a superstar transfer in Hudson Card. This was a great get for Purdue. They also return the top two running backs from 2022, but I don’t think this is going to be a running team.
I would say the thing that hurts Purdue the most is the fact Charlie Jones and Payne Durham both departed, and they were the No. 1 wide receiver and tight end last season. Card lost two huge weapons with those guys in the NFL now.
Ryan Walters is going to have his hands full on the defensive side of the ball as well. Purdue lose two out of the top four players in tackles, sacks, and interceptions from the 2022 squad. This isn’t going to be a plug-and-play situation. Purdue is going to have to rebuild the defense. But Walters is a great coach, and I think he can do the job well.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Purdue, 27-13
Both Illinois and Purdue had some big losses from last season, but I think the Boilermakers are in a bigger transition phase right now. It is going to take Walters a year or two to get that team back into a bowl game.
I think Purdue offensive coordinator Graham Harrell is going to want to throw the ball a lot, but I am not sure the Boilermakers have the weapons or the quarterback experience just yet. Purdue will be a better team in the second half of the 2023 campaign, and thankfully, Illinois gets them in the first half.
Look for Illinois to expose a wounded Purdue defense both on the ground and through the air. I think we will be able to force a few big turnovers that turn the game as well.
Week 6 – Illinois vs Nebraska
The Big Ten has had some coaching turnover, and Nebraska was one of those programs. The Cornhuskers come to Illinois on Friday, October 6 at 7:00 p.m. CT.
Much like Purdue, you have to throw the 2022 stats out the window when it comes to Nebraska football. Matt Rhule is now the head coach, and he has brought in some talented players.
Casey Thompson is now out at quarterback, and Rhule has brought in former Georgia Tech quarterback, Jeff Sims. For his career, Sims has thrown for 4,464 yards, 30 touchdowns, and 23 interceptions in three seasons. His arm isn’t great, and he won’t have much to throw to either, as two out of the top three wide receivers and the top tight end from 2022 are not with the program anymore.
The one savior for Nebraska’s offense is the fact they are returning starting running back, Anthony Grant. He rushed for 915 yards and six touchdowns in 2022, but he only had an average of 4.2 yards per carry.
On defense, Nebraska has lost a lot of talent. Two out of the top four players in tackles and three out of the top four players in sacks are all gone. The Cornhuskers do return its top two players in interceptions, though. This is a unit that allowed 28.5 points per game in 2022, which ranked No. 75 in the country.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Nebraska, 35-14
I think Nebraska has a couple of nice pieces that could do some damage, but this program is probably a year or two away from being a Big Ten competitor once again.
Rhule is going to need a recruiting class or two and some nice transfers to get Nebraska to a bowl game. I fully expect them to have another sub-500 year. Illinois should be able to take care of business on both sides of the ball. I see the Illini eating Sims up because of his limited passing abilities.
Week 7 – Illinois at Maryland
The seventh game of the season will be a tough one for Illinois. The Illini travel to Maryland to take on the Terrapins on Saturday, October 14 at 11:00 a.m. CT or 2:30/3:00 p.m. CT.
Illinois finally runs into a Big Ten team that returns most of the talent on its roster. Maryland will enter the game with its starting quarterback, Taulia Tagovailoa, looking to have another big year. He threw for 3,008 yards, 18 touchdowns, and eight interceptions in 2022. I expect him to be sensational this season.
The Terrapins also return its top three running backs and top wide receiver and tight end for the 2023 campaign. That is a lot of firepower coming back, although, three out of the top four wide receivers did depart the program. I still think Maryland’s passing game, which ranked No. 38 in the country in 2022, is locked and loaded this season.
Maryland also had a talented defense last season, which ranked No. 34 in points allowed, No. 51 in passing yards allowed, and No. 37 in rushing yards allowed per game. This defense returns the top four players in tackles, two out of the top six in sacks, and two out of the top three in interceptions.
- Prediction – Illinois loses to Maryland, 28-17
Going on the road in the Big Ten is always tough, let alone against a good team. Maryland has a squad this season that could compete to get into the Big Ten Championship game.
Illinois’ offense could struggle against the Terrapins. They have a good rush defense, only allowing 133.8 yards per game in 2022. On top of that, Tagovailoa will probably be in the Heisman Trophy discussion at this point in the season. He is going to be able to take advantage of a young Illinois secondary. This is going to be a tough game for the Illini.
Week 8 – Illinois vs. Wisconsin
Illinois heads back home for the eighth game of the season against Wisconsin. The Badgers come into Champaign on Saturday, October 21 at either 11:00 a.m. CT or 2:30/3:00 p.m. CT.
The Illini are running into so many teams that have switched coaches. After a 7-6 campaign, the Badgers moved on and now have Luke Fickell leading the way. That means you have to throw some numbers out the window.
I think Wisconsin hit the upgrade button on offense. They return starting running back, Braelon Allen, who had 1,242 yards and 11 touchdowns last season. Top wide receiver, Chimere Dike, is also back for the Badgers. The thing that was holding this offense back was the quarterback position, and Wisconsin was able to land the big-time transfer, Tanner Mordecai.
Mordecai threw for 3,524 yards, 33 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions for SMU in 2022. He now has a big stage with better talent around him. This was one of the better pick-ups from the transfer portal.
Defensively, Wisconsin returns its top four players in tackles, three of which are at the linebacker position. They did lose the top two players in sacks and two out of the top three in interceptions, though.
- Prediction – Illinois loses to Wisconsin, 38-34
It sounds like Wisconsin is going to have a much-improved offense this season. If Illinois plays the run too much, Mordecai could tear us up. If we play the pass, Allen could run wild. This will be a big test for the Illini defense.
I think Illinois’ offense could do damage on the Wisconsin defense, though. We won this game 34-10 in 2022, and I think we can put up that many points in 2023. For one of the few times I can remember, the Illinois vs Wisconsin game could be a shootout.
Week 9 – Illinois at Minnesota
Illinois enters the ninth game of the season wanting to get another win to improve position in the Big Ten. We have to travel up to Minnesota to take on the Golden Gophers on Saturday, November 4 with a time still to be determined.
Minnesota had a solid 8-5 campaign in 2022, but they lost some important talent. Quarterback Tanner Morgan is finally gone. Athan Kaliakmanis is likely to take over the starting job. He threw for 946 yards, three touchdowns, and four interceptions last season.
The Gophers also lost long-time running back Mo Ibrahim to the NFL. Minnesota’s top two running backs from 2022 are both off the roster. In addition to that, three out of the top four wide receivers from last season are also gone. The one big weapon for the Gophers is tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford.
The strength of the Minnesota program in 2022 was its defense. They gave up 14.2 points per game, which ranked No. 3 in the country. I could see them taking a step back this season, though. The Gophers lost two out of the top four players in tackles, four out of the top six in sacks, and two out of the top four in interceptions. That is a lot of talent to replace.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Minnesota, 41-17
I think this could be a year where Minnesota struggles. They are missing some important pieces, and the quarterback position will likely be a struggle.
It should be easier to score on the Gophers in 2023 as well. With so many holes to fill, Minnesota is going to struggle throughout the season. Look for Illinois to beat Minnesota for the third year in a row.
Week 10 – Illinois vs. Indiana
Illinois is going to have a chance to get revenge on Indiana in 2023. The Hoosiers come to Champaign on Saturday, November 11 at a time still to be determined.
The most confusing and embarrassing loss last season for the Illini was the first game of the season to Indiana. I don’t think that is going to happen again, though.
Indiana is coming off a 4-8 campaign, and they have lost most of the talent from that squad. Starting quarterback Connor Bazelak decided to transfer to Bowling Green. Indiana brought in the brother of Trayce Jackson-Davis, Tayven Jackson, as a transfer. He hasn’t played in college yet.
The Hoosiers also lost its top two running backs from 2022, which isn’t much of a loss since they combined for 990 yards and 10 touchdowns. Indiana is also missing two out of the top four wide receivers from the team last season. Mind you, they lost this much talent off a team that scored 22.2 points per game, which ranked No. 95 in the country.
Things get even worse on defense. Indiana gave up 35 points per game in 2022, which ranked No. 118 in the country. From that poor defense, they lost 10 out of the top 11 players in tackles, three out of the top four in sacks, and four out of the top six in interceptions.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Indiana, 52-7
This could be one of the ugliest seasons in Indiana football history, and that is saying a lot. They have had some bad teams in the past, but this one could take the cake.
I think Illinois gets revenge on the Hoosiers. We should be able to come into this game and tear apart a bad Indiana squad. I see this as the biggest blowout for the Illini in 2023.
Week 11 – Illinois at Iowa
Somehow Iowa fields a competitive team every season. Last season, Illinois got the best of the Hawkeyes 9-6. Iowa welcomes in the Illini this season on Saturday, November 18 at a time that is still to be determined.
Iowa’s passing game has been pretty bad the past few seasons, with the pinnacle of ugly last season. As a team, Iowa threw for 2,047 yards, seven touchdowns, and seven interceptions. That crew is gone now. In steps Michigan transfer, Cade McNamara. Just two years ago, McNamara threw for 2,576 yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions for Michigan. Now he looks to shoot life into a lifeless Hawkeyes offense.
Iowa does get back its top two running backs, Kaleb Johnson and Leshon Williams, from last season. They only rushed for a combined 1,192 yards and eight touchdowns, though. The Hawkeyes did lose its top pass catcher in tight end Sam LaPorta. He is going to be a big missing piece for this offense.
In 2022, Iowa gave up just 14.2 points per game, which ranked No. 3 in the country. That defense had some key departures. They lost linebacker, Jack Campbell, which is a massive hole to fill. Iowa also lost two out of the top four players in tackles. But they also return three out of the top four players in sacks and three out of the top five in interceptions.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Iowa, 21-13
McNamara is definitely an upgrade at quarterback for the Hawkeyes, but I just don’t think he will be an All-Big Ten type of player. Iowa’s running game was lackluster in 2022, and that probably won’t change much this season either.
I expect Illinois’ offense to be able to score a little more against Iowa this season. I think more than nine points is achievable. Iowa will probably score more than six points as well. I think this is another close game, but the Illini have too much talent to fall short in this contest.
Week 12 – Illinois vs. Northwestern
Illinois tore Northwestern apart in 2022, beating the Wildcats by a score of 41-3. That is when things were calm in Evanston. Northwestern will travel down to Champaign this season on Saturday, November 25 at a time still to be determined.
Ever wanted to see a live-action dumpster fire? Look no further than the Northwestern football program. They finished 1-11 last season, and since then, things somehow have gotten worse. With Pat Fitzgerald not at the helm anymore and no real direction with the program, I think you have to throw the numbers out the window.
Northwestern does return their quarterback room in 2023. But that quarterback room threw for 2,524 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 17 interceptions. So, that is a plus for whoever plays the Wildcats.
The top player in rushing yards and the top three players in receiving yards all departed the Northwestern program. This leaves a skeleton crew of weapons for the Wildcats. Northwestern actually might get worse on offense this season, even though they averaged 12.8 points per game in 2022, which ranked No. 129 out of 131 teams.
Northwestern used to be known for its defense, but that isn’t the case anymore. They gave up 28.1 points per game in 2022, which ranked No. 68 in the nation. They do return the top four players in tackles, two out of the top four in sacks, and four out of the top five in interceptions. The team only had six interceptions last season.
- Prediction – Illinois beats Northwestern, 48-3
I think the Big Ten is going to have two of the worst teams in college football this season. I already mentioned how bad I think Indiana could end up being, but I think Northwestern might be worse.
Illinois thrashed the Wildcats in 2022, and I think it could be even worse this season. Look for Illinois to expose every weakness on the Northwestern defense. I also expect at least three forced turnovers by the Illini defense. This game is going to get out of hand.
Final record for the 2023 Illinois football team: 9-3 overall and 6-3 Big Ten