Illinois football took a big hit to the record on Saturday with a painful loss to Michigan State.
The Illini had a chance to send the Spartans packing with a big win. We would have moved to 8-1 on the season and continued to work our way up the College Football Playoff rankings. But that all came crashing down with a disappointing 23-15 loss to Michigan State.
Here are five observations from the Illinois football loss to Michigan State.
1. Bad things snowballed for Illinois
There are a couple of games throughout the season where you have turnovers in the game but you try to overcome the turnovers to get a victory. On Saturday night, Illinois couldn’t overcome the turnover bug.
Down 9-7 in the second quarter, the Illini were driving. We were able to get the ball down into Michigan State territory, and everything looked like points in the near future. Illinois would hand it off to our reliable Heisman Trophy-caliber running back, Chase Brown. Brown would run the ball for 18 yards and end up fumbling it away to the Spartans.
That fumble alone cost us, potentially, seven points and the lead. That could have changed the game completely. Instead, the momentum swung in favor of Michigan State.
Illinois would then get the ball back with just over five minutes to go until halftime. Once again, we were putting together a great drive. The Illini had it in Michigan State territory, but a big penalty set the Illini back. We would end up not being able to convert on fourth down.
Down 9-7, still, Illinois had it around midfield on the third possession of the second half. Another fumble would result in Michigan State getting the ball and eventually scoring. We would then fail to convert on fourth down on two of our final three drives as well.
I can explain this simply. Illinois just had one of those games. One bad thing happened, and it just snowballed from there. We can’t have that happen moving forward.
2. Illinois was too predictive on 3rd down
The Illini are up there in some big-time statistical categories. We have an elite defense, and the ability of Chase Brown at running back is something special. But one thing we are not good at is converting on third downs.
Coming into the Michigan State game, the Illini were converting just 37.96% of third downs on the season. That is bad enough to rank No. 70 in the country. On Saturday, Illinois kept in line with that third-down efficiency by converting just 35.3% of their third downs against the Spartans.
Why is Illinois so bad at converting on third downs? I think it is the fact we are too predictable when it comes to third-down plays.
When it comes to third-down plays where there are fewer than three yards to go, Illinois tends to run the football. Against Michigan State, the Illini had five third down plays with three or fewer yards to go. We ran the ball on four of those downs. With three or fewer yards to go on third down, Illinois was 1-of-4 against the Spartans running the football. We were 1-of-1 when we would throw the ball.
For the entire game, Illinois was 6-of-17 on third downs against Michigan State. If you break that down, the Illini were 1-of-6 converting on third downs running the ball and 5-of-11 passing the ball. That is a 16.6% conversion rate running and a 45.5% conversion rate passing the football.
There are times I like the play calls from the Illinois sidelines, but I think it is fair to say that we need to change it up a little bit. We can’t keep handing the ball off up the middle on third and short. That just isn’t working.
3. The defense line for the Illini is still incredible
There is a lot of negative to take away from the loss to Michigan State. It hurts my soul to see such a great opportunity wasted because these players have worked so hard to get here. But there were some bright spots on Saturday.
I love what the defensive line brings to the table each and every game for the Illini. Coming into the matchup against the Spartans, the Illini defensive line was giving up just 77 yards per game on the ground, which ranked No. 2 in the nation.
Michigan State couldn’t get much going in the running game. While they did finish with 112 yards on the day, those yards came on 29 carries. So, the Illini were only giving up 3.86 yards per carry, which is only slightly over the 2.9 yards per carry average we are giving up this season.
I thought the entire Illinois defensive line played a masterful game against the Spartans. It seemed like Johnny Newton was in on every play, and half of them seemed to be in the backfield. He would finish the game with 8.0 tackles, 3.0 tackles for loss, and 0.5 sacks.
This was one of the better games that I have seen out of Calvin Avery as well. He was a disrupter as the nose tackle for the Illini. Avery would finish with four tackles on the day. I always love what Keith Randolph Jr. brings to the table as well. He had three tackles and one tackle for loss.
The Illinois defensive line is special. They will continue to be a force to be reckoned with moving forward. In my opinion, we have multiple NFL-caliber players in the front three on our defense.
4. Goal line offense needs to improve greatly
I have touched on the predictability of the Illini on third downs. It has been painful to watch at times. I also want to mention the issues the Illini have when we get into the red zone.
I think Illinois does a decent job at moving the football from our territory into enemy territory. Chase Brown is running the ball like crazy, and Tommy DeVito seems to be able to hit his wide receivers with ease. But when we get inside the opponent’s 20-yard line, things seem to shut down.
For the season, Illinois has only been able to convert in the red zone 78.79% of the time. That lands them at No. 89 in the nation. It is hard to win football games when you can’t put points on the board consistently.
While the Illini converting 78.79% of their red zone attempts is bad, on Saturday, they said, “hold my beer.”
Illinois had four red zone trips against Michigan State. Out of those four attempts, the Illini only managed to get points one time. So, we converted just 25% of the red zone attempts on Saturday.
On the first attempt, Illinois had seven plays for 15 yards in the red zone and failed on fourth down. The second attempt was four plays in the red zone for a total of negative nine yards. The third attempt was three plays for 13 yards and a touchdown. The final red zone attempt resulted in two plays for zero yards and zero points, as we couldn’t convert on fourth down again.
Settling for field goals hurts your chances of winning games, but when you score a total of eight points on four red zone attempts, there is a near-zero chance of you deserving to win the game. We can’t expect to win with that type of red zone offense.
5. There is still a ton of meaning to the Illinois season
Boy howdy, one sign of falter for the Illinois football team, and the bandwagon fans are already starting to jump off.
I understand feeling extremely sad after this loss. It was a loss to a below-average Michigan State team. We had an outside chance of making the College Football Playoff if the chips fell in the right place. Now that is all gone. It is going to take a while to shake this tough loss.
But let’s not give up on this Illinois football program. In the preseason, the over/under betting line for Illinois wins in 2022 was 4.5. That is right. Las Vegas thought Illinois was going to be bad this year and didn’t think we could even hit five victories.
Well, we are nine games in and have a record of 7-2. Yes, I wanted it to be 8-1 but it isn’t. Illinois has the most regular season wins since that Rose Bowl run in 2007. We are going to a bowl game this season as well. But there is still more to play for than a good record and an improving bowl game.
Illinois has a one-game lead in the Big Ten West as we speak. There is a legit shot we are playing Ohio State on December 3 for the Big Ten Championship. I couldn’t even imagine saying that just two months ago.
The Illini have business to take care of this season. Next week is Purdue. A win there would go a long way in sealing up the Big Ten West. Let’s also play spoiler to Michigan. Illinois has a chance to knock the Wolverines out of the College Football Playoff. If we can’t make it, let’s knock out teams that can.
The sting from losing to Michigan State isn’t going away anytime soon, but let’s put this season in perspective. We are 7-2 and have a legit shot at finishing 9-3 in the regular season. A bowl game is guaranteed, and there is also a legit shot at playing Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship game. If I would have said this before the season, people would have drug-tested me. This is a reality, though. Let’s enjoy it.