Illinois Football: 3 key numbers for the Illini to beat Virginia

3. 35.3%

Keeping the Virginia offense off the field is going to be extremely important for the Illini on Saturday. To do this, our offense needs to be able to move the ball.

Illinois hasn’t had a great offense since the Juice Williams days. But I think we have the potential to have a solid group on that side of the ball. I like what I have seen so far this season, but I think if we want to win the game against Virginia, we are going to need to hold onto the ball for long stretches.

To do that, Illinois needs to convert on third downs. In the game in 2021, the Illini only converted on 35.3% of third downs against the Cavaliers. That is a really bad number. If Illinois carried that number for the entire 2021 campaign, we would have ranked No. 100 in the nation.

This season, I have been impressed with offensive coordinator Barry Lunney’s play calling, for the most part. He does get predictable at times, but Lunney puts the Illinois offense in third-and-manageable situations. We don’t see a lot of 3-and-10 or worse situations. This helps convert on third downs, which helps us keep the ball.

Illinois converted 52.9% of their third downs against the Hoosiers. For the season, we have converted 48.5% of third downs, which ranks No. 29 in the nation. If we can convert somewhere between 48%-53% of third downs on Saturday, then there is a legit shot we take down Virginia.