Right now, there are teams that are either 1) most likely to make the tournament, 2) “On the Bubble,” or 3) most likely out of the tournament. Here are the some of the teams I feel fall into these three categories this week.

Most Likely In

1) Oklahoma Sooners (19-9, 10-6, 4th Big 12)

Feb 27, 2013; Austin, TX, USA; Oklahoma Sooners guards Sam Grooms (1) and Steven Pledger (2) and Je

Last week, the Sooners were a definite lock for the NCAA Tournament. Although, that was before they went into Austin, Texas to play the Texas Longhorns on February 27th. Oklahoma led the Longhorns by more than 20 points in the second half, but let Myck Kabongo take over to hit a game tying buzzer beater and then win the game in overtime for Texas. It is true that this is OU’s FIRST bad loss of the season.

They do have wins over Kansas and Oklahoma State (both at home) and are about .500 against the Top 100. Their remaining two regular season games this week will not be “resume builders” as they will play West Virginia (home) and TCU (away), but losses here will be more bad losses.

2) Colorado Buffaloes (19-9, 9-7, 5th Pac-12)

Colorado had a chance to get themselves closer to the NCAA Tournament, but took a minor step back this past week. On Saturday, the Buffaloes lost a tough game to the California Golden Bears. Both Colorado and California will most likely be in the NCAA Tournament, but that was a game the Buffs truly needed to win. However, Colorado has a BIG resume booster on Thursday night in the Oregon Ducks. If they can find a way to win against the Ducks, they could give the committee enough to select them for the tournament. The Buffaloes already have one win against Oregon in Eugene.

3) Creighton Bluejays  (24-7, 13-5, 1st MVC)

Jan 30, 2013; Omaha, NE, USA; Creighton Bluejay forward Doug McDermott (3) points to a teammate during the second half of their game against the Missouri State Bears at the CenturyLink Center. Mandatory Credit: Dave Weaver-USA TODAY Sports

Last week, I had the Creighton Bluejays in my “Most Likely Out.” That was before they picked up a win over Wichita State on March 2nd. ESPN’s Joe Lunardi (arguably the best bracketologist) has Wichita State as an at-large lock for the NCAA Tournament. Going off of that and the fact that they won the Missouri Valley regular season, the Bluejays should be dancing this March. With that being said, they will need to avoid any crazy upsets.

Last year, Illinois State made a run as Cinderella in the MVC tournament as they 1) beat #1 Wichita State and 2) took #2 Creighton to overtime in the championship game. The only team Creighton “can” lose to in the conference tournament is Wichita State.

4) California Golden Bears (20-9, 12-5, 3rd Pac-12)

One problem I had with the California Golden Bears last week was their record against better opponents. Now, even though they weren’t better in the Pac-12, I believe Cal’s win over Colorado helps this point. The Golden Bears and the Buffaloes were about even in the Pac-12 (even though Cal was technically slightly better record-wise). California made sure that they were better than Colorado after that win. With that being said, one bad loss can put Cal on the bubble. They play their last regular season game against Stanford this week and “should” be able to win the game.

Right now, there are teams that are either 1) most likely to make the tournament, 2) “On the Bubble,” or 3) most likely out of the tournament. Here are the some of the teams I feel fall into these three categories this week.

Most Likely In

Feb 14, 2013; Boulder, CO, USA; Colorado Buffaloes fan holds a newspaper article in reference to the schools mascot in the first half of the game against the Arizona Wildcats at the Coors Events Center. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

1) Colorado Buffaloes (18-8, 8-6, 6th Pac-12)

The Colorado Buffaloes are in the tournament, but still be left out. Colorado has a strong non-conference record at 10-2 this season where they lost to Kansas and Wyoming (both on the road). They started Pac-12 Conference play on an 1-4 skid, but picked it up. They have some nice conference wins on their resume like their win over Arizona.

However, they turn around the next game and lose to Arizona State. Colorado will play four more games. As long as they play well and don’t screw up against Stanford or Oregon State, they should be in.

2) VCU Rams (22-6, 10-3, 2nd ATL 10)

VCU has a problem this year playing teams that are better than them. The Rams are 7-6 against teams inside the Top 100 and 15-0 against teams outside the Top 100. They only have three conference losses this season, but their last two games were straight-up dirty. They were completely rolled on by St. Louis and needed to make a huge comeback to beat Xavier. Out of their remaining regular season games, VCU will play Butler (home) and Temple (road). They NEED to beat one of these teams to stay in the discussion.

VCU will most likely be in this year’s tournament, but not everyone shares my opinion. Right now, ESPN’s Joe Lanardi has both Butler and Temple in the tournament and the Rams out.

3) Temple Owls (19-8, 8-5, 5th ATL 10)

Feb 21, 2013; Philadelphia, PA, USA; Temple Owls guard Khalif Wyatt (1) celebrates a play during the first half against the La Salle Explorers at the Liacouras Center. Mandatory Credit: Howard Smith-USA TODAY Sports

Temple might be in, but they are barely in. The Owls earned big wins over both Villanova and Syracuse during their non-conference schedule, but have lost some questionable conference games. Yes, they are 5-1 in their last six games. However, their only loss in those six games was against Duquesne. They have also lost games against St. Bonaventure and Saint Joesph’s.

They have some winnable games before their regular season finale against VCU. Although, the Temple Owls need another big win and the only match-up that provides that is their game against the VCU Rams.

4) California Golden Bears (18-9, 10-5, 4th Pac-12 )

One problem with the California Golden Bears is their record against better opponents and the Top 100. They are 13-0 against teams outside the Top 100 compared to 5-9 against teams in the Top 100. The Golden Bears are currently riding a five game winning streak which started with their win over the Arizona Wildcats. Along with the Wildcats, they have also defeated the UCLA Bruins and the Oregon Ducks during this win streak.

California would be in the tournament today, but they still have three regular season games left with one being against Colorado.