Illinois Basketball: A Look At What Could Have Been

Whether you blame the injuries, John Groce, the players, or some combination thereof, it is safe to say the Illinois basketball season has been a bust so far.

Next: 3 Offensive Recruits That Could Make An Impact

Looking forward to the rest of the season, and based on Illinois’ marginal play, it is hard to see how the Illini can do better than .500 with Iowa, Maryland, and Indiana still looming.

So, lets look back, shall we, at the season that could have been.

I deeply believe the only reason Illinois is having such a hard season is because of the injuries. Where could we be had Illinois been a healthy squad?

I am making huge assumptions obviously, but with a healthy and consistent starting line-up, Illinois would unquestionably be in a better place.

I see Illinois with 19 or 20 wins as of today. No kidding. Here is how I get there.

My assumptions about the season that could have been are based on a healthy Tracy Abrams, Mike Thorne Jr., and Leron Black. There were other critical short-term injuries too, but those tend to happen to any team in a given season.

What doesn’t tend to happen to teams is that they lose their point guard and both of their best rebounders and defenders who can also score significant points.

Also, it bears noting that it isn’t clear exactly when Black’s performance was impacted by his knee, though it could have been right out of the gate. I say that because Black was performing at the highest level of any Illini player during August when they were in Belgium and France. He really appeared to be coming on, and as I have said before, he was the one I was most excited about before the season started.

Black played well the first few games of the regular season, but he started a quick slide down hill against Providence, and we now know that was because of his knee.

So add the dynamic duo of Malcolm Hill (a Jerry West Award Finalist and leading scorer in the B1G) and Kendrick Nunn, and let’s imagine what could have been.

Because of North Florida’s incredible shooting against Illinois on opening night, I am giving that game to the Ospreys. I’m sure their fans will find that generous of me. Though it bears noting that Abrams perimeter defense and his average of 10.7 points per game might have tipped the balance in our favor.

The first game that should have fallen Illinois’ way, even without Abrams, was against Providence. Illinois lost that game on a last second missed dunk by Michael Finke. But it wasn’t just that.

The final possession started with a missed lay up by Hill, then the Finke doink, and then a missed three by Hill before the buzzer sounded. On top of that, Black and Thorne Jr. had zero field goals between the two of them. And had Abrams been the Illini’s floor general, even with the Black and Thorne goose eggs, we would have won.

At any rate, had any one of those six things been different, Illinois wins.

With all due respect to the Chattanooga Mocs, a team that is 19-3 and is one of the best mid-majors out there, Illinois would have won that close game with the help of Abrams. Regardless, I still contend that this was not a bad loss for the Illini.

The Mocs are No. 6 in the mid-major Top 25 just behind St. Mary’s, Wichita State, Valpo, Little Rock, and Gonzaga. That is very good company.

No one can honestly argue that even a fully healthy Illini team wouldn’t be greatly challenged by any one of those teams.

The next game that I think Illinois could have won was against Iowa State.

You might recall that Illinois was down one point at the half. You might also recall that this is the game where Thorne went down, essentially for the season, with a couple minutes left in the first half. He already had 7 rebounds and 10 points.

Illinois lost that game by 11.

The difference was points in the paint and rebounds in the second half. With Thorne in the game in the first half, the Cyclones only scored 12 interior points, but they scored 32 in the second with Thorne gone.

Illinois outrebounded Iowa State in the first half 19-16. But in the second it was 24-11 in favor of the Cyclones. I think Thorne’s presence is such a game changer that Illinois could have won that game with him.

More from Writing Illini

Notre Dame is my next win.

Thorne was absent. Black was a shadow of himself. But Illinois went into the half with an eight point lead. Illinois was shooting well, and continued decent shooting even in the second half. And if you look at the play analysis Illinois dominated key categories.

So how did they lose this game?

In a nutshell, Illinois failed to defend…a persistent problem that came back to haunt them after a good first half of defense.

In the first half Notre Dame shot 4 for 10 from the three, and 13 for 28 from everywhere else. In the second they went 6 for 10, and 16 for 28.

Without the perimeter defense that Abrams brings and without Thorne and a healthy Black defending, Notre Dame was able to steal opening night at the State Farm Center.

Illinois won its remaining five non-conference games, ultimately finishing 8 and 5. However, had things played out as described above, and I think that is a strong likelihood with a healthy team, Illinois would have entered conference play at 12 and 1, 11 and 2 at worst.

In this potential scenario, Illinois would have entered B1G play ranked in the top 15. Feels good, doesn’t it?

They also would have entered with a solid battle tested team and great depth on the bench. Imagine Finke backing Black, Morgan giving Thorne a breather, JCL alternately relieving Hill and Nunn, and Tate coming in for Abrams. Groce would have had an option to red-shirt Aaron Jordan or DJ Williams.

I won’t go into detail on the B1G games – this fantasy is coming to an end – but suffice to say Illinois would have probably beaten Michigan, Ohio State twice, Nebraska, and Wisconsin. That alone would have, to date, put the Illini at 8-2 in the B1G, and at 19 or 20 wins overall.

It is fun to think about…so close your eyes and enjoy the fantasy for a few moments. Try to ignore that tightening in your gut, that rock of reality sitting on your heart. The pain can wait. It isn’t going anywhere.

Home/Illinois Fighting Illini