NCAA Tournament: Odds and Facts For Last Minute Bracket Changes

After crumpling over a million papers, the picks have been made and the brackets are all filled!

The NCAA Tournament kicks off today with a game between #4 Michigan State and #14 Valpo. Many “experts” on filling out brackets have said there is no easy road to the Final Four. This could prove to be true, but why not let the facts speak for themselves.

With just a few hours before tip off, here are some odds and facts when it comes to “double-checking” your tournament bracket.

Mar 16, 2013; New York, NY, USA; Louisville Cardinals guard Peyton Siva (3) and guard Luke Hancock (11) and forward Montrezl Harrell (24) celebrate in front of Syracuse Orange forward C.J. Fair (5) towards the end of the second half of the championship game of the Big East tournament at Madison Square Garden. Louisville won 78-61. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

Top 5 Odds to Win NCAA Title:

1) Louisville 5/1
2) Indiana 8/1
3) Miami (FL) 8/1
T-4) Duke 10/1
T-4) Florida 10/1
T-4) Kansas 10/1
5) Gonzaga 12/1

Perfect Bracket Odds:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets (9.2 quintillion).

Interesting Facts About Picking Brackets:

  • If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.
  • If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 BILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that’s 20 times longer than the universe has existed).
  • If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 43 years to fill out every possible bracket.
  • If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.
  • All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 90,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.
  • Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.
Interesting Facts About the First Round:
  • #16 seeds are 0 for 112
  • Mar 16, 2012; Greensboro, NC, USA; Lehigh Mountain Hawks forward Jordan Hamilton (44) and guard Mackey McKnight (11) and forward Gabe Knutson (42) react toward the end of the game. The Mountain Hawks defeated the Blue Devils 75-70 in the second round of the 2012 NCAA men

    #15 seeds are 6 for 112

  • At least one Top 4 seed has lost in the first round 24 of 28 years
  • #13 and #14 seeds combined win 18% of first round games
  • #12 seeds have won at least one game 22 of 24 years
  • #9 seeds are 4 wins above .500 vs. #8 seeds

Interesting Facts About the Second Round:

  • 88% of #1 seeds advance to the Sweet 16
  • #10 and #12 seeds combined win about half the time in Round Two
  • #12 seeds have the same number of Sweet 16 appearances overall than #7 seeds
  • A double digit seed has made the Sweet Sixteen 26 of 28 years
  • Only once in 28 years has all the top three seeds (#1, #2, #3) made the Sweet Sixteen
  • Only 7 of 448 teams (1.6%) advancing past Round 2 were seeded worse than #12

Feb 16, 2013; Fairfax, VA, USA; George Mason Patriots guard Sherrod Wright (10) attempts a jump shot over Georgia State Panthers guard Rashaad Richardson (25) during the first half at Patriot Center. Mandatory Credit: Rafael Suanes-USA TODAY Sports

Interesting Facts About the Sweet 16:

  • 72% of #1 seeds make the Elite 8
  • 26 #11 seeds have made it the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced

Interesting Fact About the Elite Eight:

  • Only 3 of 112 teams to advance to the Final Four teams have been seeded worse than #8

Interesting Fact About the Final Four:

  • The Final Four has included exactly one or two #1 seeds 22 of 28 years

Interesting Fact About the Championship Game:

  • Only ONE team worse than #6 has made it in last 27 years
  • Since tournament seeding began 34 years ago (1979) only 6 times have two #1 seeds made the finals

Make sure to follow me on Twitter @RickyWidmer.

Like the us on Facebook at Writing_Illini.

Next Fighting Illini Game Full schedule »
Saturday, Oct 2525 Oct11:00Minnesota Golden GophersBuy Tickets

Tags: Basketball Duke Blue Devils Gonzaga Bulldogs Kansas Jayhawks Louisville Cardinals NCAA Bracket NCAA Tournament Odds

comments powered by Disqus